Who Bears the Risk? Mekong Societies Face Policy Gambles and Human Fallout
Issue 12 — Key Developments Across Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Thailand
Editor’s Note
by Mattia Peroni, Lead Editor - Mekong Belt Desk
This issue is about risk—and who’s forced to carry it. Across the Mekong, governments are making big bets, markets are wobbling, and ordinary people are left holding the downside. In Thailand, the government is trying to transform a national issue into a policy tool through a retirement lottery that promises prizes now and cash-back at 60. Although innovative and technically making lottery tickets “free,” what looks like a win-win could leave the most vulnerable with nothing but empty promises. In Myanmar, military blockades and U.S. aid cuts are turning hunger into a weapon of war, a scenario that mirrors what is happening in Gaza. In Laos, nine months after Vang Vieng’s methanol poisonings, the tourism push still outruns the capacity to regulate basic safety. If oversight doesn’t catch up, the country’s promise as a “safe, welcoming” destination rests on luck, not institutions. And in Cambodia, civil society is invoking old treaties to demand protection at a volatile border.
Thailand 🇹🇭
Thailand’s Approach to an Ageing Society? Introducing the Retirement Lottery Bill
by Natamon Aumphin, in Bangkok
Earlier in July 2025, the Thai parliament passed a bill to amend the National Savings Fund Act, allowing Thai citizens aged 15 and above to purchase retirement lottery tickets. The scheme is part of an effort to increase retirement savings among Thais, contributing to their retirement plan. The government highlighted that the purpose of this bill is to curb low financial social security provided by the state to elders and encourage good financial behavior among citizens, as the money spent on the lottery will be returned to the buyers when they become 60 years old.
As Thailand transitions into an ageing society, the retirement lottery bill offers another alternative for the government and its citizens. Particularly, the government utilizes Thais’ love for gambling through a lottery system to promote sustainable savings. In fact, a survey conducted by the Institute of Future Studies for Development (IFD) concluded that over 61% of Thai people bought lottery tickets in 2018, for a total expense of THB 154 billion. Substantial spending on gambling is among the reasons that Thais have little savings and an increase in household debts. This is problematic, especially for elders, as welfare money is barely enough and jobs are increasingly hard to find.
The retirement lottery features money prizes of THB 1,000,000 and THB 1,000. The winners will be announced weekly. The upside is that every baht spent on the retirement lottery will eventually be returned to participants, unlike traditional lotteries. In fact, even people who do not win will get all the money spent back at age 60, plus returns from the National Savings Fund. This could potentially solve low saving rates among Thai people and encourage productive financial investment.
Lottery enthusiasts older than 60 also benefit from the new system, as they can buy lottery tickets and get their money back plus returns in five years. Moreover, in the case of death, the beneficiaries of their estate will inherit the money. Nonetheless, there are some concerns over whether the money can be withdrawn beforehand in case of emergency and whether the system further promotes gambling behavior.
In line with ASEAN’s commitment to tackle the issue of an ageing population, the retirement lottery offers another chance for ASEAN countries to learn from each other’s experience of policy implementation on a national scale. As ageing societies become a common challenge for ASEAN, affecting the rapid-growing economies of the region, it is imperative to collectively find sustainable approaches to solve it. In particular, countries ought to optimize their national development plans to prepare for an ageing population while ensuring economic growth.
Phaopoom Rojanasakul, the deputy finance minister, is confident that the retirement lottery bill will increase financial stability in Thai society as people age. Although the bill was meant to deal with illegal lotteries circulating in the market, it acts as a creative way to encourage positive financial behavior and prepare for retirement. Ultimately, the retirement lottery has the potential to become a new safety net, testing how far innovative policymaking can go in reshaping Thailand’s financial future.
Natamon has served as a rapporteur at the Institute of Security and International Studies (ISIS Thailand). She has also worked as a research assistant on diplomatic issues in Southeast Asia. Her work focuses on how domestic politics shape foreign policy in the region. She holds a degree in international relations and has experience in policy analysis, event reporting, and regional research.
Myanmar 🇲🇲
Hunger Crisis Deepens in Myanmar as U.S. Funding Cuts Hit Humanitarian Relief Efforts
by May
Communities in Northern Myanmar are scouring forests and fields as the wartime blockade and the U.S. aid cutbacks have fueled food scarcity across the region. UN Humanitarian Workers state that it is reaching levels unseen in decades.
The World Food Program (WFP) warned that in recent weeks, 57% of the families residing in the Rakhine state are now unable to meet basic food needs. The figures illustrate a drastic, alarming increase from 33% in December. The WFP Representative and Country Director in Myanmar, Michael Dunford, noted that the people are caught in a vicious cycle as the aid was cut off by prolonged conflict, mobility restrictions, a surge in prices, and most importantly, a significant decrease in humanitarian funding. In April, WFP was forced to cut lifesaving support to over one million people as the funding fell short leaving assistance available only for the most vulnerable, such as children under five, people with disabilities, and pregnant or breastfeeding women.
Essentially, the Trump Administration’s decision to cut 87% of USAID led to a 60% drop in WFP funding this year compared to 2024, as the US contributed close to half of the donations. As a result, it can now feed only 20% of Burmese people facing severe food insecurity.
On the other hand, the wartime economy makes it extremely tough for businesses to continue operating. Not only have the communal fights created humanitarian needs, but they have also destroyed the economy across Myanmar. Although the food market has seen a rise of vendors due to job scarcity, buyers are scarcer than ever. This absence of buyers has a reciprocal effect on the food market, as shown by a farmer from Sittwe who has abandoned his rice harvest due to an inability to find buyers. This is the result of a heavy military blockade in Rakhine. The military even restricted fishing, which was Rakhine’s stable source of food and income. Consequently, many fell into financial struggles, increasing reliance on humanitarian funding, which is scarce for citizens.
The crisis is now even affecting people who already escaped Myanmar’s tragedy, as reports indicate that 100,000 Burmese refugees in Thailand lost access to food and medical aid due to US funding cuts. The standard monthly allowance decreased to US$2.30 a month (77 Baht) per adult, with households receiving limited rations. According to Human Rights Watch, every refugee stated that if permitted, they would work outside the camps to reduce reliance on foreign assistance. In this context, keeping them ineligible for jobs deprives them not only of income but also of a vital source of self-reliance and dignity.
Ultimately, Myanmar’s crisis can no longer be treated as a distant issue: much like the hunger crises seen in Gaza and other conflict zones, it demands urgent global attention before malnutrition becomes weaponized and spirals into one of the largest humanitarian catastrophes of our time.
May has previously worked in the editorial department at a media group in Myanmar. She also has experience in film and photography, and engages with people-centered stories through her travels and creative work.
Lao PDR 🇱🇦
Nine months after methanol poisoning tragedy, Laos’ tourism is still haunted by scarce oversight
by Chammie Lo, in Vientiane
When it comes to beer-loving countries, Germany often comes to mind, thanks in part to its legendary Oktoberfest. Before coming to Laos, I naively thought the Germans held the crown as the hardest lovers of beer. Yet, Laos rivals the Bavarians in per-capita alcohol consumption, with Beerlao being a national staple enjoyed to the point that locals sometimes even infuse it with herbs or other additives meant to relax or intoxicate more quickly.
But when alcohol turns illicit, the dangers are real. Last November, six foreign visitors in Vang Vieng, a backpacker haven, died after drinking methanol-tainted spirits at a hostel. The tragedy made rare international headlines about Laos, a country usually mentioned in the news related to its grappling debt with China.
The story resurfaced last week when a British survivor, now permanently blind, shared his tragedy with the BBC. This brought the global memory back, after more than six months in which Lao authorities kept the incident low-profile.
Illicit alcohol poisoning is not unique to Laos. Across Southeast Asia, methanol is used as a cheap alternative to ethanol, or in artisanal home brews produced without licenses or quality checks. In Cambodia, in 2021, more than 40 villagers died in a series of rice wine poisonings. In Luang Prabang’s night market, it is still easy to spot vendors offering jars of rice whisky steeped with snakes or herbs. Many brew with love, yet are unaware that artisanal tradition can sometimes mask lethal risk.
So what has Laos done since Vang Vieng? Authorities arrested hostel staff, banned Tiger Vodka and Tiger Whisky and shuttered the factory suspected of producing the tainted batch. The Nana Backpacker Hostel was also closed, despite recent rumours of the facility being set for reopening. These steps were swift, but do they go far enough to protect the millions of tourists Laos hopes to attract?
Weak enforcement and underfunded oversight continue to limit the government’s ability to regulate food and drink. Even in supermarkets, not all Lao food products carry proper safety certification, reflecting broader gaps in agri-processing standards. With a shortage of trained inspectors, limited budgets, and competing crises, the prospects for robust alcohol regulation remain slim.
Laos still faces a long road ahead. For tourists, the resurfacing of this story is a reminder to think twice before taking free shots in countries with scarce safety oversight. Tragedies like Vang Vieng highlight not only a governance gap but also serve as a reminder for development partners to strengthen regulatory systems, especially when they are helping the country to promote tourism. Without that balance, the promise of Laos as a safe, welcoming destination will remain dangerously fragile.
Chammie is a development professional working on sustainable finance and inclusive livelihoods in Laos. She holds a degree in Politics and Law from the University of Hong Kong and has contributed research insights to academic and community spaces on heat governance, climate migration, and emission transparency.
Cambodia 🇰🇭
More than 100 Cambodian Civil Society Groups Petition Paris Peace Accord Signatories Over Cambodia-Thailand Border Dispute
by Chandara Samban, in Kandal
After nearly a month of ceasefire, the Cambodia–Thailand border dispute remains a pressing issue in Southeast Asia, as both sides continue to exchange accusations of violations of sovereignty following the five-day armed clashes from July 24 to 28. The ceasefire has led to the establishment of an ASEAN observer group to monitor the situation and opened the door for longer-term negotiations aimed at restoring peace.
In Cambodia, beyond government action, citizens have used social media to demand justice, with many accusing Thailand of being the aggressor in the conflict. Civil society organizations have also stepped in. On August 20–21, 2025, more than 100 Cambodian civil society groups submitted a joint petition to the embassies of countries that signed the 1991 Paris Peace Agreements, urging them to intervene in the dispute. The petition called for an urgent meeting to investigate the clashes, facilitate humanitarian efforts, and safeguard Cambodia’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and peace, in line with Article 5 of the Paris Peace Agreements.
Signed on October 23, 1991, the Paris Peace Agreements brought an end to Cambodia’s civil war and were endorsed by more than 19 countries, including the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and all ASEAN member states except for Myanmar. Thailand, now a party to the current border conflict, was among the original signatories. The accords guarantee respect for Cambodia’s independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity, and neutrality, obligations that all signatories are bound to uphold.
Government spokesman Pen Bona told The ASEAN Frontier that the Cambodian government supports civil society initiatives that can contribute to resolving the border dispute in accordance with Cambodia’s national interest. He also stressed the government’s commitment to settle the dispute through international diplomatic mechanisms, including engagement with the UN Security Council and the International Court of Justice, as well as mediation efforts from Malaysia, China, and the US. Moreover, Cambodia has also facilitated the Interim Observer Team (IOT) and is moving toward the deployment of the ASEAN Observer Group.
Yong Pov, Secretary-General of the Royal Academy of Cambodia, welcomed the petition, arguing it serves to raise international awareness and pressure for action. “It is an effort to show the international community the brutality of the Thai military toward Cambodia, which I support. Whether or not these countries can resolve it is another matter, but the important thing is that Cambodia has informed the world of what Thailand has done,” he told TAF. While such language reflects the intensity of feeling within parts of Cambodian civil society, observers note that meaningful resolution will depend on diplomacy rather than rhetoric.
Meach Sovannara, President of the New Generation Party, echoed this view, noting that the petition reflects the voice of Cambodian civil society in expressing the pain of armed conflict. He said the Paris Peace Agreements remain legally binding despite being nearly 34 years old, and that the 19 signatory countries, including Thailand, share responsibility for addressing the crisis. Sovannara urged the government to invoke the agreements and call on its co-chairs, France and Indonesia, to play an active role in mediating the dispute. Now, whether the Paris Peace Accords signatories will respond remains to be seen, but Cambodian civil society has made clear that it expects international guarantees to be upheld.
Chandara is a freelance journalist with a focus on foreign affairs, security issues, and ASEAN affairs. He also serves as a Junior Counterterrorism Intelligence Analyst.
Editorial Deadline 22/08/2025 11:59 PM (UTC +8)
