ASEAN Can't Do It
Issue 22— Key Developments Across Brunei, Indonesia, and Malaysia
Editor’s Note
by Haniva Sekar Deanty, Lead Editor - Maritime Crescent Desk
ASEAN’s rhythm has always been one of coordination. Diplomacy through dialogue, progress through patience. However, recent weeks have shown that beneath this surface of consensus, member states are charting increasingly distinct paths toward their strategic goals.
Indonesia has revealed how bilateral pragmatism can fill the gaps multilateralism leaves unaddressed. Hree P. Samudra dissects how the Indonesia–Timor-Leste Bilateral Investment Treaty, concluded quietly before Timor-Leste’s ASEAN accession, speaks less of divergence than of necessity.
In Brunei Darussalam, Syimah Johari examines His Majesty’s active participation at the APEC Summit in Gyeongju underscored continuity; how Brunei as a small state projecting steady commitment to multilateralism and sustainable development, while adapting to the new forces shaping the global economy, from AI to digital transformation.
Meanwhile Edrina Lisa Ozaidi explores Malaysia’s recent pivot toward BRICS, alongside deeper engagement with the GCC and China. Far from abandoning ASEAN’s principles, Kuala Lumpur’s diversification seeks to secure strategic autonomy within a more fragmented global order.
These developments reflect what might be called a quiet departure from consensus. However, this isn’t to be read as a break from unity, but an evolution of it.
Indonesia 🇮🇩
ASEAN Can’t Do It: Why Indonesia Went Bilateral with Timor-Leste
by Hree Putri Samudra, in Jakarta
When Timor-Leste joined ASEAN on October 26, 2025, Indonesia had already moved. With negotiations concluded by July, the Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) was already finalized during the summit proceedings. This timing reveals something most observers miss. It’s not evidence of Indonesian strategy, but ASEAN’s institutional gap.
ASEAN established the Initiative for ASEAN Integration (IAI) back in November 2000 to solve exactly this problem: integrating new members and narrowing development gaps. It learned from CLMV accessions in the 1990s that uneven development could slow regional integration unless deliberately managed. By any measure, the framework has been active. The IAI Work Plan IV (2021-2025) encompasses 114 projects worth USD 24.8 million, training over 51,000 personnel across the region. That’s real work. But it still doesn’t do what bilateral BITs do.
The IAI organizes development support around five areas: Food and Agriculture, Trade Facilitation, MSMEs, Education, and Health and Well-being. Within Trade Facilitation, it targets standards harmonization, WTO/WCO implementation, non-tariff measures, and e-commerce adoption. This is essential capacity-building work. Yet across all areas, IAI contains no mechanisms for investor protection, dispute settlement, or SOE coordination across borders. How do you legally protect foreign investments? How do you coordinate state-owned enterprises regionally? Bilateral instruments provide both.
IAI’s implementation rests on four dimensions: governance, project delivery, stakeholder engagement, and performance management; all operating through consensus. Any member can block proposals that threaten their interests, making bilateral arrangements more practical for sectoral development.
Foreign Minister Sugiono framed it precisely in March 2025. Indonesia’s real contribution was accelerating investment approvals for Indonesian companies, especially state-owned ones, in Timor-Leste. Not promotion generally. Acceleration. That distinction matters because speed determines whether projects actually move or languish in working groups. Bilateral frameworks with explicit dispute settlement mechanisms and fast-tracked approval processes can deliver that speed. IAI working groups cannot. They never were designed to be.
The Indonesia-Timor Leste BIT concluded in June 2025 to encourage investment cooperation and increase FDI flows. Such treaties create direct channels between investors and states—unlike IAI working groups which operate by consensus. Indonesia’s SOEs and private companies can operate under bilateral terms they negotiated directly, free from ASEAN constraints. That’s why bilateral arrangements endure.
The structural constraint is that ASEAN consensus-based decision-making requires unanimous approval for multilateral investment governance. Single states can block proposals that threaten national interests. Indonesia isn’t maneuvering against China or Australia or seeking hegemony. It’s operating within ASEAN’s design, which preserves member autonomy over binding rules. BITs circumvent that constraint. They persist not because Indonesia prefers bilateralism, but because ASEAN’s structure makes it the only functioning mechanism.
Consensus wasn’t accidental. ASEAN founders structured decision-making to preserve national sovereignty, prioritizing individual discretion over binding multilateralism. That choice provided stability, but prevented rapid institutional development. Now ASEAN faces a choice: develop multilateral channels for investment protection and coordination, or accept that bilateral BITs will continue filling the gap. For now, member states choose the latter. Flexibility remains worth the integration costs.
Indonesia isn’t innovating. It’s filling a gap ASEAN deliberately left open.
Hree serves as Project Associate for Asia and the Pacific at the Global Network of Women Peacebuilders (GNWP), where she leads multi-country initiatives integrating Women, Peace and Security (WPS), and Youth, Peace and Security (YPS) frameworks into security policies across ASEAN and South Asia. She is also a Non-Resident Fellow at the University of Glasgow’s Atomic Anxiety in the New Nuclear Age program. Previously, she served as Chair of the Humanitarian Disarmament and Inclusive Governance Working Group at the British American Security Information Council (BASIC), advocating for more accountable and inclusive nuclear policy frameworks.
Brunei Darussalam 🇧🇳
Brunei Marks an Eventful Week with APEC Summit in Gyeongju
by Syimah Johari, in Bandar Seri Begawan
Brunei Darussalam has witnessed a week full of key developments and milestones as His Majesty Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah Mu’izzaddin Waddaulah ibni Al-Marhum Sultan Haji Omar ‘Ali Saifuddien Sa’adul Khairi Waddien, Sultan and Yang Di-Pertuan of Brunei Darussalam, graced the 2025 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in Gyeongju, South Korea. His Majesty’s attendance spanned several key sessions – from the Informal Dialogue with Guests, the APEC Economic Leaders’ Retreat, to the Gala Dinner – following the 47th ASEAN Summit that was held in Kuala Lumpur. The APEC Summit this year’s overarching theme is, ‘Building a Sustainable Tomorrow: Connect, Innovate, Prosper’, set the tone for regional cooperation and forward-looking discussions.
Brunei Darussalam has long demonstrated active participation in APEC, underscoring its commitment and cooperation towards the frameworks and initiatives. Last year’s APEC Economic Leaders’ Retreat in Peru witnessed His Majesty emphasising the need for global unity and collective action in addressing global conflicts, economic instability, and climate change. The importance of cooperation in developing clean energy solutions and tackling food loss to build a more resilient and sustainable future was also highlighted by His Majesty, affirming Brunei’s commitment to the Machu Picchu Declaration.
In his address this year, His Majesty underlined the importance of renewed cooperation among economies as they navigate global shifts, including geopolitical uncertainty and economic challenges. The transformative role of artificial intelligence, describing it as a key driver of future growth, aligning with the theme of the summit was also not left out from his encouragement. Through his remarks, he articulated Brunei’s commitment to collaborative action and forward-looking strategies, aiming to foster resilience, sustainable prosperity, and shared progress across the region. This was delivered on two occasions throughout the summit – the Informal Dialogue with Guests on 31 October as well as the APEC Economic Leaders’ Retreat the next day.
Brunei’s participation in this year’s APEC Summit reflects not only its commitment to dialogue and cooperation but also its readiness to adapt to a rapidly changing global landscape. Following the Gyeongju Declaration and its emphasis on digital connectivity, inclusive growth and the responsible adoption of technology aligns strongly with Brunei’s own Digital Transformation Plan and long-term development goals. As the region moves toward a more connected and resilient future, Brunei’s drive to innovate and collaborate highlights how national ambition can move in harmony with shared regional goals.
Syimah is a graduate of King’s College London with a BA in International Relations. With a strong focus on diplomacy, regional cooperation, and development policy, she is passionate about contributing to meaningful change through public service. Currently, she is involved in poverty alleviation work through a local NGO.
Malaysia 🇲🇾
Malaysia Pushing for BRICS
by Edrina Lisa Ozaidi, in WP Kuala Lumpur
Now that Malaysia’s ASEAN Chairmanship has concluded, the country has pivoted its focus to the BRICS bloc, alongside efforts to strengthen ties with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and China. While this shift is enacted during a period of intense global geopolitical volatility, this raises a question for the region: whether the new strategy is a necessary move to future-proof ASEAN, or does it risk diluting the bloc’s long-held tradition of strategic neutrality?
Malaysia’s foreign policy over the past year has clearly prioritised the concept of the “Global South,” through its commitment to diversify its economic and diplomatic dependencies. Official figures by MATRADE show that Malaysia exceeds projections beyond traditional Western markets by setting a high goal in trade targets for 2025 with a specific focus on the BRICS nations.
Besides BRICS, the long standing diplomatic work with ASEAN-GCC-China Trilateral Partnership only proves a point that Malaysia aims to widen their economic corridor. The goal is obvious, which is to welcome new investment and market access, particularly in the Middle East and Africa. This ensures that Malaysian and, by extension, ASEAN businesses have multiple resilient avenues for growth.
Regional analysts largely interpret this diversification as a pragmatic response to the rising tide of protectionism and geopolitical competition between major global powers. A policy analysis from the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute suggested that Malaysia’s chairmanship recognises that ASEAN is “at a Strategic Crossroads,” necessitating proactive measures to ensure the bloc’s collective economic stability.
By actively seeking new partners like BRICS, China and GCC, Malaysia is attempting to cultivate strategic autonomy. This move is designed to cushion the regional economy from the shocks of bipolar rivalry. Besides that, this move helps demonstrate that ASEAN is not dependent on a single set of markets or political powers. It’s a move intended to reduce the risk in the region by opening multiple supply and demand lines.While critics occasionally argue that aligning too closely with non-traditional blocs could undermine ASEAN centrality, the principle that ASEAN should be the primary driver of regional security and economic architecture, the prevailing view is that this diversification actually reinforces it.
Through creating new, non-aligned trade and investment pipelines, Malaysia is ultimately strengthening the collective economic resilience of all member states. This action benefits fellow ASEAN member states by validating ASEAN’s position as a diverse and multifaceted market hub. Also, this proves that a proactive, outward-looking chairmanship can shield, rather than challenge, the centrality of the regional bloc. This help BRICS pivot appears less like a departure and more like a high-stakes hedge to secure ASEAN’s future stability.
Edrina is a communications professional with a background in international relations. She holds a degree from the University of Nottingham Malaysia and has worked across public relations and social media for organizations in the development, education, and corporate sectors. Her work focuses on crafting narratives around regional affairs and strengthening media engagement across Southeast Asia.
Editorial Deadline 01/11/2025 11:59 PM (UTC +8)
