Caught in the Crossfire
Issue 39 — Key Developments Across the Philippines, Singapore, and Vietnam
Editor’s Note
by Karen Ysabelle R. David, Lead Editor - Pacific Corridor Desk
For the past week, the countries of Southeast Asia have watched the turmoil engulfing the Middle East with bated breath. Beyond the blaring headlines filled with oil price hikes and geopolitical posturing, Southeast Asian migrant workers are caught in the crossfire, thousands of miles away from home.
For the Philippines, a country known for its Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs), many of whom are in the Middle East, the situation is especially poignant: the deteriorating situation saw the death of a Filipina caregiver in Israel on the very first day of the conflict. For Vietnam, the estimated 10,000 Vietnamese workers in the region are a quiet cause for concern for the government, but its focus as of now, as is the case for most countries, is on the energy conundrum currently rippling through the world. Singapore is in the same situation: seemingly bleak prospects with regard to oil and energy, alongside concern for its citizens, as it arranges the speedy repatriation of Singaporeans stuck in a suddenly turbulent region.
As we watch the governments of Southeast Asia engage in diplomatic feats and impose energy-saving measures, it is clear that a distance of a thousand miles means nothing when war breaks out.
The Philippines 🇵🇭
War Abroad and Workers at Risk
by Glenn Vincent N. Boquilon, in Angeles City
Rising tensions in the Middle East have raised concerns regarding the safety of Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) in the region. According to migration data, there are at least 2 million Filipinos in the Middle East, with a huge number employed in Gulf countries like the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. This makes it one of the regions with the largest concentration of Filipinos outside of the Philippines. As things continue to escalate, the safety of these migrant workers have quickly become an urgent national concern. Recent reports — including the death of a Filipina, Mary Anne Velazquez de Vera, who was caught in the violence in Israel — have renewed calls for stronger protection measures and faster government response.
For the Philippines, OFWs are vital actors in securing economic stability. Annually, their demographic sends billions of US dollars in remittances that support their families back home. This brings in a steady flow of income that sustains their daily needs. However, situations like this put them at great risk. Regions that experience political instability extend the consequences to the people residing in the area. This exposes them to threats concerning their personal safety, employment, mobility, and more. When violence breaks out, any government has a responsibility to safeguard its people regardless of wherever they may be in the world.
One of the key measures that the government can use is repatriation. If violence and insecurity are present in an area, authorities can arrange for Filipino citizens to return home safely. As of writing, the Philippine government has assisted with the return of more than 299 Filipinos, spanning across multiple flights from the region. Additionally, the report says that fewer than 2,000 have registered for repatriation. Many more Filipinos are expected to arrive in the coming days as embassies and consulates monitor developments in the affected region. In this regard, close coordination with local authorities is pivotal in ensuring that Filipino workers receive timely updates and guidance. Some of the agencies heading this call are from the Department of Migrant Workers and the Department of Foreign Affairs.
The situation also affects other Southeast Asian workers in the Middle East. Countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand also send large numbers of workers to the region. For many ASEAN countries, overseas employment is an important source of income for families and national economies. When conflict happens, the risks faced by migrant workers become a shared concern across the region. International organizations such as the International Organization for Migration and the International Labour Organization have long called for stronger protections, clearer communication, and better coordination during emergencies to support migrant workers abroad.
As war and instability continue to escalate in the Middle East, governments across Southeast Asia are reminded of the importance of protecting their citizens abroad. Diplomatic coordination, clear communication, and timely assistance will remain key in ensuring that migrant workers stay safe during periods of uncertainty.
Glenn holds a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science from the University of Santo Tomas. His experience spans governance programs, policy development, and political research, having worked with the Ateneo School of Government and WR Numero Research on projects focused on electoral reform, public opinion, and regional development. He also helped coordinate the drafting of the Bangsamoro Local Government Code and supported the Academy of Multiparty Democracy.
Vietnam 🇻🇳
Vietnam’s Energy Conundrum and Overseas Workers’ Woes
by Sean Huy Vu
Like the rest of Asia, Vietnam is facing a conundrum with regard to its gasoline and diesel reserves amid the United States and Israel’s war on Iran. Since the conflict began, much of the discussion has revolved around Tehran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane which delivers about 20 million barrels of oil a day from the Middle East to refineries around the world. By doing so, the Iranian government hopes to internationalize the war and provoke the global community into pressuring the United States and Israel to stop their airstrikes.
After the Strait’s closure, Vietnam’s Ministry of Trade and Industry created Plan 1081 on 7 March to ensure a stable supply of essential goods, such as oil and gas, to maintain the government’s target of 10% GDP growth for 2026. The plan’s framework focuses on: (1) ensuring “energy security and supply of petroleum products;” (2) strengthening the supervision and regulation of the supply and demand of essential goods amid the rising costs of logistics and transportation; and (3) strengthening “early warning and flexible response in the supply chain.” Beyond this broad list of aspirations, the Ministry did not give details at the time as to what steps it would implement to achieve these goals. On 10 March, the government promulgated Decree Number 72, which temporarily reduces the import tax on petroleum products and raw materials for petroleum production until 30 April in order to stabilize gas prices. The reduction specifically targets unleaded motor gasoline, fuel oils, and aircraft engine fuels, among other petrochemicals.
Current government measures, however, may not be enough to withstand what could potentially be several months of conflict. Vietnam imports 87% of its oil from the Persian Gulf region, and is estimated to possess only about 20 days worth of emergency reserves. Some of its liquefied natural gas is exported to landlocked Laos, which is even more dependent on petroleum imports. Already, the central government has recommended that businesses work remotely as much as possible, and for citizens to carpool or take public transportation. On the ground, long queues have formed at gas stations in major cities and the price of petroleum has nearly doubled in some areas.
Recently, Prime Minister Pham Minh Trinh also spoke with his Kuwaiti counterpart over the phone to discuss bilateral cooperation amid the Middle East’s current geopolitical tensions. In addition to food and energy security, Prime Minister Pham expressed his concern over the welfare of Vietnamese workers in Kuwait. There are an estimated 10,000 Vietnamese workers in the region, the majority of which are in Saudi Arabia, and the remainder in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and others. “In previous conflicts,” writes the Vietnamese state-run Người Lao Động, “there have been instances of workers being abandoned by their employers, receiving delayed wages, or having their identification documents withheld.” One can only hope that this will not be the case for this conflict.
Sean is a scholar of East Asian history, culture, and international relations, with current research at Georgetown University examining working-class labor and human trafficking in the region. His broader interests include the social psychology of religion and identity politics. Sean previously taught modern Korean history at the University of California, Irvine, where he completed his B.A. in History, and later taught English in Ho Chi Minh City while studying Vietnamese language and culture. His writing has been published by UC Irvine, Johns Hopkins University, and Foreign Analysis.
Singapore 🇸🇬
The Impact of the Middle East Conflict on ASEAN Energy Prices
by Nurul Aini, in Singapore
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important chokepoints in the world, supplying about 20% of oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) flow globally, with 84–89% of oil supplied to Asia. A disrupted Strait of Hormuz means that countries like Singapore that are 100% reliant on imported crude, and that also serves as a refining and trading hub for ASEAN countries, may see a decrease in oil exports and a spike in fuel prices for transport, aviation, and electricity. Cambodia, heavily reliant on imported fuels from other Southeast Asian countries, can potentially see a higher degree of stress on their systems if exporting countries reduce their petroleum exportations. On 10 March (Tuesday), Singapore’s fuel prices in petrol stations such as Shell and Caltex rose from SGD 3.05 to SGD 3.35 for its 95-octane petrol. Similarly, the 98-octane petrol spiked up to SGD 3.87. Within the same period of time, oil market prices fluctuated from nearly US$120 before dipping to US$90, following United States President Donald Trump’s announcement that the war will end.
Malaysia is also concerned about oil prices, especially with regard to its Budi95 petrol subsidy which provides Malaysians with a RM 1.99 fuel subsidy. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has vowed to ensure that the subsidy can continue for Malaysians, while at the same time calling for a ceasefire. He has previously mentioned that the subsidy will be able to hold out for about 1–2 months. Abdelaziz Albogdady, a market research and fintech strategy manager at FXEM, highlighted that the crude imports could negate the gains from higher fuel prices and strain the country’s subsidy system. Meanwhile, the Philippines sources 96% of oil from the Persian Gulf, while Vietnam and Thailand buy roughly 87% to 74% respectively. Governments in Thailand and the Philippines have already ordered their public officials to use less air conditioning and to reduce travel.
Additionally, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are two of the biggest exporters of LNG globally, with ASEAN having a share of roughly 15–25%. Pang Lu Ming, a senior gas and LNG analyst at Rystad Energy, suggested that economies reliant on energy imports will see energy price inflation. Domestically, in Singapore, household electricity tariffs and gas bills may increase. It depends on ASEAN governments now to advance the ASEAN Power Grid agenda to strengthen energy connectivity across the region.
Although prospects on energy and oil may currently seem bleak, other issues such as travel disruptions have seen a glimmer of hope in operational procedures. The Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) evacuated more than 200 Singaporeans who had requested assistance via the A330 Multi-Role Tanker Transport from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. A second evacuation procedure is scheduled for 12 March 2026. ASEAN leaders have also been vocal against the war, calling for maximum restraint and to resolve any differences through dialogue and diplomacy.
Aini is currently pursuing a master’s degree in English literature at Nanyang Technological University. She has experience working in youth groups, contributing to the planning and management of outreach activities.
Editorial Deadline 10/03/2026 11:59 PM (UTC +8)
