Editor’s Note
by Karen Ysabelle David, Lead Editor - Pacific Corridor Desk
The first law of geography is this: “Everything is related to everything else, but near things are more related than distant things.” The countries of ASEAN are bound together, despite all their diversity, by geographical proximity. Yet this week, the countries of the Pacific Corridor defy geography, with neighbors Singapore and Indonesia bristling at each other, while distant Belgium warms up to Vietnam.
For Singapore, relations with neighboring Jakarta have become just as unclear as the haze blanketing both countries, with the latter accusing the former of orchestrating the downgrading of its market status in an escalating tit for tat. In contrast, relations between Hanoi and Brussels are closer than ever, thanks to Vietnamese General Secretary and President To Lam’s continuing whirlwind diplomatic tour of Europe.
However, for the Philippines this week, even geopolitical posturing pales in comparison to social media feeds filled with doomsday scenarios. The supposed simultaneous stockpiling calls from governments all over the world is a social media fabrication; but the risks of a ‘super’ El Niño are very much real and not so easily defied.
Singapore 🇸🇬
The Hazy Situation of Singapore and Indonesia
by Nurul Aini, in Singapore
Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) recently proposed downgrading Indonesia’s market standing to the ‘Standalone’ tier. Announced on 15 October 2026, the official MSCI Global Market Accessibility Review reported multiple issues, such as the deterioration in information flow involving transparency in shareholding structures and suspicious coordinated trading behavior. There was also a lack of accessibility, as reports are not always available in English.
Yet, Indonesia’s former trade minister, Muhammad Lutfi, has an alternative proposal. In an Instagram video, he suggested, with no evidence, that Singapore was involved in pressuring MSCI’s market reclassification. State investors such as Temasek and GIC, through its director, Rachel Khoo, were believed to be involved. According to Lutfi, he had received “khabar langsung” (direct information) of this ordeal.
In response, a GIC spokesperson denied this allegation, stating that their investment decision is not driven by index classifications or top-down views of a market. Rather, it is by looking at the fundamentals at a company or market level. Temasek’s head of Asia Pacific (excluding India and China), Mr Fook Wai Hoong, similarly denied the allegation as “patently untrue.” Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) president director, Jeffrey Hendrik, affirmed that MSCI operated independently.
Recent evidence also showed a coordinated disinformation campaign that targeted Singapore, circulating the sentiment that Singapore is involved in pressuring the market, and that the country should be punished for it. Some posts were posted as close as 23 seconds to 25 minutes apart, with similar anti-Singapore and anti-MSCI slogans parroted across posts.
On 24 October, Indonesia reduced gas supply exports to Singapore, justifying it as part of a necessary move to preserve supplies for domestic consumption. Minister for Energy, Trade and Industry (Energy and Industry) Tan See Leng noted that the cut only accounted for less than 2% of Singapore’s total daily gas needs and thus advised Singaporeans to “keep calm and carry on.” Singapore’s gas supplies also come through Malaysia through pipelines and LNG shipments come through international suppliers. Energy needs are therefore already diversified.
However, according to Mr Alvin Chew, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Indonesia’s reputation as a major gas supplier may be affected, as the decision was made immediately, while contractual agreements were still in place, and without a clearly communicated future timeline.
This situation has renewed conversations in Singapore about developing domestic energy needs through nuclear and solar energy. Speaking at a conference, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong mentioned that Singapore must also look to cleaner sources of power, as it looks forward to providing reliable electricity around the clock.
On 28 October, Minister for Foreign Affairs Vivian Balakrishnan visited Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto at his private residence in West Bogor, Java. While details of their conversation were not disclosed entirely, Minister Vivian assured the public that Singapore and Indonesia remain committed to honoring contractual agreements, and mentioned that Indonesia’s success remains integral as the two countries’ futures are intertwined.
At the highest governmental level, communication has occurred between President Prabowo and PM Wong as both countries work toward resolving differences.
Aini is currently pursuing a master’s degree in English literature at Nanyang Technological University. She has experience working in youth groups, contributing to the planning and management of outreach activities.
Vietnam 🇻🇳
From Belgium with Leverage
by Tri Vo, in Ho Chi Minh City
In the midst of a world witnessing escalating geopolitical fragmentation and hardening protectionist barriers, Vietnam is actively engaging in nuanced economic diplomacy with an eye toward hedging against the risks of such a tumultuous time. A defining milestone in this diversification agenda concluded in late October 2026, when General Secretary and President To Lam completed official visits to the European Union (EU) and the Kingdom of Belgium. Culminating in high-level summits with European Council President António Costa, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever, the mission brought about a strategic affirmation designed to bridge existing regulatory hiccups and accelerate high-tech transfers.
The most sensitive dimension of the diplomatic engagement centered on maritime governance and regulatory compliance. In their bilateral Joint Statement, both parties formally agreed to intensify coordination in combating illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing while enforcing relevant EU maritime regulations. Removing the European Commission’s longstanding IUU “yellow card” — an official warning issued to trading partners falling short of addressing IUU fishing — remains a critical prerequisite for Vietnamese fishery exports to regain full and privileged access to so important a market. In turn, Vietnam also welcomed Belgium’s domestic progress toward ratifying the EU–Vietnam Investment Protection Agreement (EVIPA), an essential institutional framework necessary to gradually dismantle the blockages that hobble even more substantial flow of capital from member states, capital that would prove instrumental in the development of Vietnam’s growth avenues such as manufacturing.
However, the dividend of so important a trip extends far beyond fishing compliance and traditional commerce. The Vietnamese delegation also steered negotiations and cast a look toward deepening cooperation in investment/research & development in frontier sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductor, biotechnology, and renewable energy. This is meant to pair not just Belgium’s, but also the larger EU’s, advanced research capacity with Vietnam’s strong industrial capacity, as Hanoi strives to achieve its ambition to move up the global supply chain from mere assembly point to something much more technologically intensive.
Crucially, this technological ambition is being anchored by concrete logistics infrastructure. During his official itinerary, To Lam toured the Port of Antwerp-Bruges, Europe’s second-largest shipping complex, to advance cross-border training and expertise-sharing in fields such as green port management and cold-chain infrastructure. In addition, the engagement also sought to create a conduit of trade between Vietnam and one of the largest nodes of transportation in Western Europe, thus providing Vietnamese electronics and agricultural outputs a reliable logistical pathway to a rich and populous market, a kind of long-term demand hub that will continuously power Vietnamese manufacturing for years to come.
This very trip to Europe is an object signal of Vietnam’s proactive and multimodal diplomatic engagement that seeks not only increased commercial activities, but also casts its eye toward parlaying deepening relations into a possible higher rung in the global economic pecking order. The trip, in addition, can also serve as an object lesson in deft diplomacy by which ASEAN peers could leverage to engage with the outside world, attaining short-term gains along with long-term advantages.
Tri has experience in management consulting and strategy, having worked with institutions such as the UNDP, The Asia Group, and ARC Group. He has provided strategic, legal, and operational insights to clients in sectors including manufacturing, energy, and technology. He holds both academic and professional experience related to Southeast and East Asia, with a focus on regional development and policy.
The Philippines 🇵🇭
What Do the Global Stockpiling Calls Really Mean for Filipinos?
by Eduardo G. Fajermo Jr., in Angeles City
Filipino feeds carry lists of countries telling citizens to stockpile food, water, cash, and batteries. The posts have raised a question: if governments are preparing all at once, what do they know that the public does not?
The advisories reveal no secret countdown to war or “doomsday.” They are old guidance, new campaigns, and different national risks compressed by social media into one frightening narrative.
Japan’s new disaster agency asked households on 2 November to prepare at least three days’ worth of food and water, preferably up to a week’s worth. Its stated risks include major earthquakes and a possible Mount Fuji eruption.
Britain’s Be Ready campaign also recommends three days of water and non-perishable food. Security Minister Dan Jarvis told Parliament the campaign was not based on “any specific or imminent threat” but on storms, fires, outages, and other emergencies that can overwhelm responders.
The European Union has issued non-binding guidelines for 72-hour self-sufficiency under a strategy that predates the viral posts. The logic is simple: when power, water, roads, or communications fail, public help may not reach every home immediately.
The Philippines already follows that logic. Local disaster officials have long urged 72-hour self-sufficiency for earthquakes, while go-bag guidance covers food, water, medicine, documents, flashlights, radios, and chargers.
Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. said households should treat reserves as “good housekeeping,” not evidence of an imminent security threat. He advised families to rotate supplies and avoid buying so much that shelves are emptied.
Preparedness means keeping a modest, usable reserve suited to a household’s real risks; panic buying means taking far more than needed.
Under the Price Act, panic buying is defined as purchases grossly beyond normal requirements that create shortages and hurt less privileged consumers. In a country where many families buy food by the day, fear-driven hoarding lets those with cash protect themselves by making essentials harder for everyone else to find.
The most immediate Philippine concern is not a coded foreign warning but the very strong El Niño expected to intensify water, food, energy, and health pressures into 2027. Department of Science and Technology Secretary Renato Solidum Jr. has urged early, science-based action, while officials say there is no need to hoard.
A three-day kit is sensible; a viral prophecy is not. But the government cannot simply tell families to prepare and walk away: it must publish clear local risks, live supply data, price monitoring, and support for households that cannot afford extra stocks.
The real warning in these campaigns is not that authorities know the date of a catastrophe. It is that they know assistance will be delayed when systems fail — and resilience depends on trust before the shelves empty.
Eduardo is a Political Science graduate and MA Political Science candidate at the University of Santo Tomas, researching democracy, disaster governance, and inclusive policy in the Global South. He is a former faculty member at Holy Angel University, where he taught Philippine history and contemporary global issues. He also worked with a senator in the Guam Legislature, contributing to policy research and legislative analysis.
Editorial Deadline 03/11/2025 11:59 PM (UTC +8)
