Dili’s Dilemma
Issue 45 — Key Developments Across the Philippines, Singapore, Timor-Leste, and Vietnam
Editor’s Note
by Karen Ysabelle R. David, Lead Editor - Pacific Corridor Desk
It’s a dilemma faced by every young country: focus on the bright promises of the future, or look back on the struggles of the past? As Amandina Maria Helena da Silva writes, twenty-three-year-old Timor-Leste is no exception. Even as Dili now steps into the spotlight, the women survivors of the country’s decades-long struggle for independence find themselves relegated to the shadows.
Meanwhile, this week, Vietnam and the Philippines both look uneasily beyond their borders. In Vietnam, Sean Vu reports on what President Tô Lâm’s recent state visit to China reveals about Hanoi’s delicate balancing act between “an assertive Beijing and an unpredictable Washington.” Manila, too, is fretting about its security, as the fast-paced world of today brings with it a whole host of new security risks, as discussed by Glenn Vincent N. Boquilon.
As Timor-Leste grapples with its past and Vietnam and the Philippines focus on a chaotic present, Singapore, as ever, looks toward the future, writes Jennifer Tan. Faced with a slowing job market, the city-state is confronting the problem presented by artificial intelligence head-on by offering its citizens the opportunity to reskill and upskill through a government initiative.
Timor-Leste 🇹🇱
Voices Forgotten in Independence
by Amandina Maria Helena da Silva, in Dili
During the 1975–1999 conflict, in order to control the resistance of Timor-Leste, sexual violence against women and girls was widespread and perpetrated in a systematic manner in multiple locations across the country. At present, many women survivors have reached old age, facing emerging social, economic, and health difficulties, all while feeling as though they have been neglected by the state.
Despite their situation, women survivors continue fighting to gain recognition from the government or state that they are active contributors to the independence of Timor-Leste, and not only the combatants.
As documented by AJAR-TL (Asia Justice and Rights Timor-Leste), survivors continue to experience profound sadness, pain, and anger stemming from past events that have shaped their suffering up to the present, such as living with stigma and discrimination; poverty; no food; no adequate shelter; and living with severe diseases and trauma. Yet these experiences remain unrecognized by the state. For survivors, official recognition is not merely symbolic; it is essential to restoring their dignity and affirming the value of their lives.
In the context of the celebration of the International Day of the Right to Truth and Dignity of Victims, as reported by RTTL Roman ba Nasaun, survivor Rosa Belo expressed feeling unable to overcome the painful experiences of the past and that she continues to live with their enduring impact. Meanwhile, the daughter of survivor Idalina emphasized the importance of protecting and recognizing victims, acknowledging that they also made significant contributions to the struggle for independence.
Furthermore, the Director of AJAR-TL emphasized that this represents an opportunity to call upon both the public and relevant authorities to uphold the dignity of victims and to ensure that their right to adequate reparations is fully recognized and fulfilled.
However, although Timor-Leste has been independent for almost 24 years, the recognition and dignification of survivors’ voices has not been prioritized as a national concern. While survivors live in conditions of poverty, suffering from multiple illnesses, and experiencing painful deaths, the question must be asked: independence for whom?
Besides this, the Centro Nacional Chega-CNC has made an effort to develop a draft law and policy on reparations for victims. The draft is presently undergoing public consultation following its completion, and it will subsequently be submitted to the Council of Ministers for approval.
Amandina is a human rights advocate working with Asia Justice and Rights Timor-Leste on the Interim Reparation to Women Survivors project. She previously worked with UNDP Timor-Leste’s Accelerator Lab and has contributed to human rights and health initiatives through several youth and civil society organisations. Her interests lie in justice, youth empowerment, and community-based social change in Timor-Leste.
Vietnam 🇻🇳
Is Vietnam Leaning Towards China?
by Sean Huy Vu
After his election by the National Assembly, President Tô Lâm made his first state visit to China from April 14–17. During this trip, both leaders expressed their desire to boost trade and cooperation between their countries. Vietnam hopes to export more machinery and agricultural products, while Beijing intends to increase its investment in Vietnam’s green energy and transportation infrastructure, among other initiatives.
Tô Lâm’s visit comes as Vietnam’s political elite reform the regime to more closely imitate China’s institutions. At the 3+3 strategic dialogue last month, the two countries pledged to increase cooperation in their Ministries of foreign affairs, national defense, and public security. Tô Lâm himself broke with precedent and unified both the roles of State President and Party General Secretary, just like in China.
Even among Vietnam’s domestic populace, there appears to be a shift. Social media posts (especially on TikTok), online searches, and language learning data suggest that Vietnamese attitudes towards China are becoming less hostile, according to Reuters. Nguyen Khac Giang of the Yusof-Ishak Institute explained that, “Young Vietnamese online sound less strident about China than before, but that owes more to the state’s increasingly tightening control of nationalism than to fading resentment.”
But social media algorithms and like counts can distort reality. A recent poll by ISEAS shows that over 59% of Vietnamese elites favor the United States over China in a hypothetical forced choice. In contrast, 52% of respondents across ASEAN chose China. A major source of friction between Beijing and Hanoi is the South China Sea, where Chinese vessels employ gray zone, coercive tactics against Vietnamese fishermen for the sea’s water and airspace, as well as fishing grounds. The territorial disputes resonate with the nationalism of the Vietnamese public, whose ancestors experienced centuries of conflict with China, the most recent being the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War. Another area of competition between China and Vietnam is the latter’s role as a diversified source for production and export in global supply chains, especially for the United States and its allies.
Thus, Vietnam is not aligning closer with China, but is continuing its “struggle and cooperation” approach (đấu tranh và hợp tác). Although Vietnam remains one of the United States’ major supporters, this popular sentiment cannot be easily translated into policy since Vietnam remains deeply integrated with China’s economy and maintains several territorial disputes. Any overt tilt towards Washington could result in consequences for the ruling party in Hanoi. As Gregor Polling of the Center for Strategic and International Studies notes, “In the new world of U.S. revisionism, keeping China at arm’s length in favour of U.S. investment or U.S. preferred standards just isn’t seen as viable anymore.”
To balance between an assertive Beijing and an unpredictable Washington, Vietnam has increasingly leveraged several of its Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships (CSP). In the midst of turmoil in the Middle East, “Hanoi has turned to Japan and South Korea for crude oil assistance and is seeking alternative jet fuel suppliers,” after China suspended exporting their refined fuel to neighbors. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung met with his Vietnamese counterpart for a four-day visit in an aim to boost economic and people-to-people ties. South Korea is already Vietnam’s largest source of foreign direct investment (FDI), at 25% of the total, equivalent to approximately US$99 billion, and the relationship is expected to grow. Should Vietnam continue to successfully diversify its relations, the need to lean towards either the United States or China will be unnecessary.
Sean is a scholar of East Asian history, culture, and international relations, with current research at Georgetown University examining working-class labor and human trafficking in the region. His broader interests include the social psychology of religion and identity politics. Sean previously taught modern Korean history at the University of California, Irvine, where he completed his B.A. in History, and later taught English in Ho Chi Minh City while studying Vietnamese language and culture. His writing has been published by UC Irvine, Johns Hopkins University, and Foreign Analysis.
Singapore 🇸🇬
Is Singapore’s Upskilling Push Actually Working?
by Jennifer Hui En Tan, in Singapore
Singapore’s job market has experienced a notable slowdown in recent years, with job postings dropping 17% and companies increasingly preferring contract roles over permanent positions due to economic uncertainty. In response, the government has intensified initiatives for citizens to upskill SkillFuture programs. Since 2024, individuals aged 40 and above received a SGD 4,000 non-expiring credit to top up their skills and pursue new career goals, a move further accelerated by the rapid rise of AI. Despite the push, an important question remains: are these initiatives delivering their intended impact?
Singapore has shown the sharpest drop in job postings in five years since March 2021, with a 4.5% dip in February 2026 and 58% of employers planning to freeze headcount. Despite the current job market having more jobs compared to pre-pandemic times, the concentration in skilled sectors made the level of entry higher for the overall population. This issue is directly linked to the overall rise of AI and digital technologies, as employers plan to utilize and upskill employees to work alongside AI. Furthermore, 30% of respondents in a NTUC survey stated that they felt anxious that AI would or could replace their jobs in the future.
SkillsFuture is an initiative by the Singaporean government to incentivize citizens to reskill and upskill by providing subsidies and credits. So far, 555,000 individuals have enrolled in a SkillsFuture-supported program, and the Career Transition Program under SkillsFuture recorded that 72% of individuals who completed the course secured employment in their new sector within six months of completion. This reflects the program’s effectiveness in lowering barriers to training and encouraging broader participation across age groups.
Steps to maintain high quality and relevant training have been initiated by SkillsFuture. By tightening course approval and renewal, this ensures that training programs are encouraged to actively invest in workforce development. Initiatives to launch a revamped portal with AI powered personalized guidance and curated recommendations for in demand skills to direct users towards pathways that align with their interested industry’s needs and long-term economic priorities.
Within Southeast Asia, similar skill development incentives have been introduced to strengthen workforce competitiveness. Indonesia has introduced the Kartu Prakerja program, a large-scale, government-funded upskilling initiative which has reached 14.3 million beneficiaries across 34 provinces. Indonesia’s program stands out as one of the region’s most extensive and well-documented national upskilling initiatives. Notably, 92% of participants selected training based on their individual needs, while 95% reported a skill improvement upon completion, suggesting a strong alignment between training provision and user-driven demand, as well as positive perceived outcomes.
Overall, while Singapore’s SkillsFuture initiative has significantly improved access to training and shows promising indicators in employability outcomes and skills acquisition, its long-term economic impact remains mixed and still evolving. The program has lowered barriers to lifelong learning and helped many individuals transition into new roles, particularly in a rapidly changing labor market shaped by AI and structural shifts. However, challenges such as uneven employer participation, varying relevance of courses, and uncertainty over measurable wage and productivity gains suggest that SkillsFuture’s effectiveness is not yet fully maximized. Moving forward, its success will depend on strengthening the alignment between training, industry demand, and tangible career outcomes, ensuring that upskilling translates more directly into sustained economic resilience and workforce competitiveness.
Jennifer is a final-year International Relations student at the Singapore Institute of Management, where she focuses on political engagement, diplomacy, and community governance. She is an active volunteer in her constituency, working closely with residents to understand local concerns, facilitate dialogue, and support community initiatives.
The Philippines 🇵🇭
Rethinking Security in a Changing World
by Glenn Vincent N. Boquilon, in Angeles City
Since the Cold War, national security has been defined and understood through military terms. Discussions were centered on armed conflict, protection from external threats, and maintaining state sovereignty. While this is still the case today, the definition has continuously evolved. Security is no longer just about borders and weapons. It now covers a wider range of risks that affect economies, the technological landscape, and other important domains of life.
However, traditional defense still plays an important role. Countries like the Philippines continue to invest in military modernization. The Armed Forces of the Philippines’ (AFP) Re-Horizon 3 is a prime example of this, as the program seeks to shell out around US$35 billion for military upgrades. They also continue to strengthen alliances with various countries that could help protect the country.
Recent escalations in the disputed territory that the Philippines calls the West Philippine Sea, including confrontations during resupply missions, show that upholding sovereignty and territorial defense are still principal concerns. As gray zone tactics are becoming more pervasive in nature, strategic engagements must also follow. At the same time, joint exercises with partners such as the United States Armed Forces under agreements highlight how alliances continue to shape security strategy.
Simultaneously, new security risks are becoming harder to predict. Economies today depend on systems that can be vulnerable to disruption. Power grids, transport networks, communication systems, and digital platforms are all critical infrastructures that can be easily manipulated in an attack. The Philippines is not new to cyber attacks, with several official government websites having been targeted in recent months. Regionally, ransomware threats in Singapore and Indonesia show how these challenges can disrupt services and affect public trust. Thus, digital vulnerability and cybersecurity are other important domains that must be considered when thinking of national security.
Adding to this, energy security is another challenge. The tensions between the United States and Iran have pushed oil prices to an all-time high. Many countries in Southeast Asia, including the Philippines, rely on imported fuel. With limited access to this essential element, disruptions have occurred across multiple industries. As a response, the Philippine government has declared a state of national energy emergency. Time and time again, geopolitical tensions entail a degree of instability across the globe.
There is also a growing focus on the need to safeguard information systems. Protecting sensitive data is pivotal to national security. As technology advances, threats are becoming more sophisticated and complex. Reports of disinformation campaigns and concerns over foreign interference during elections are a prevalent issue in Southeast Asia. These highlight how challenges in security have gone beyond physical borders and spread to digital landscapes. Ultimately, governments must pay closer attention to data protection, digital platforms, and the role of information in shaping public opinion.
Many of these challenges are shared by countries in Southeast Asia, as they work to uphold sovereignty while also dealing with economic pressures and technological risks. Regional efforts through ASEAN include cooperation on cybersecurity, disaster response, and economic resilience. While each country responds differently to threats, there is a growing understanding that security now requires coordination across borders. Knowledge management and information sharing are pivotal to regional security.
In the end, redefining security means adjusting to a more complex and ever-changing world. Defense remains important, but it is no longer enough on its own. Countries must now protect not only their borders, but also their economies, systems, and institutions. For the Philippines and the wider ASEAN region, this extensive approach is becoming ever more essential in navigating today’s security challenges.
Glenn holds a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science from the University of Santo Tomas. His experience spans governance programs, policy development, and political research, having worked with the Ateneo School of Government and WR Numero Research on projects focused on electoral reform, public opinion, and regional development. He also helped coordinate the drafting of the Bangsamoro Local Government Code and supported the Academy of Multiparty Democracy.
Editorial Deadline 21/04/2026 11:59 PM (UTC +8)
