Editor’s Note
by Siu Tzyy Wei, Lead Editor - Maritime Crescent Desk
This week, flames flicker across the region, sometimes celebratory, sometimes destructive, sometimes provocative, but always revealing a deeper story beneath the embers.
In Brunei, Hari Raya fireworks blaze against the night, as Maryam Zulaidi reflects on the festive season’s power to bring not only families together, but also strengthen diplomatic ties with regional counterparts.
Across Malaysia, fiery words in parliament face the prospect of new restraints, as the government studies proposed guidelines to curb issues surrounding the “3R” - race, religion and royalty among Members of Parliament. Sydney Gan delves into the National Harmony Act, and whether policing parliamentary debate is a solution to preserving unity without hindering accountability.
In Indonesia, the government is straining to shield households from the shock of surging oil prices by pouring trillions into subsidies as the crisis at the Strait of Hormuz threatens to push crude oil costs even higher. Here, Rayhan Jasin examines how Jakarta’s consideration of a nationwide work-from-home mandate could ease fuel demand and fiscal pressure, while also reshaping business practices and exposing new vulnerabilities.
From fireworks to debates, the Maritime Crescent reminds us that flames never burn in isolation. Rather, they leave embers that illuminate deeper significance - showing how celebration, provocation and crisis all glow within the same firelight of the region’s story.
Brunei Darussalam 🇧🇳
When Hari Raya Becomes Common Table
by Maryam Zulaidi
Eid-al-fitr is the celebration that marks the end of the holy month of Ramadan and the beginning of the new Islamic month of Syawwal. More popularly known as Hari Raya Aidilfitri, Malay Muslims in Brunei uniquely observe Hari Raya for up to 30 days, a cultural practice which differs from other Muslim communities around the world. During Hari Raya, celebrants visit homes of their relatives and friends and spend quality time together, strengthening and reaffirming familial and communal bonds through traditional food and games. That being said, these practices are not exclusively limited to the Muslim communities of the three nations. Rather, it is a season of celebration that transcends the social construction of cultural boundaries — it is a warm welcome for all to join regardless of background, race, and even faith. In the bigger picture, Hari Raya can be seen as the cushion that supports diplomatic relations between Brunei and its counterparts who share the same cultural practices.
For nearly fourteen years, it has become a routine for a Singaporean minister, accompanied by his/her delegations to pay a friendly visit to Brunei during this joyous event. In the course of this festivity, Singaporean dignitaries are invited to Hari Raya events such as open houses hosted by Bruneian Cabinet ministers and members alike as well as the Singaporean High Commission in Brunei. It is through events like these, informal discussions regarding cooperation between the two states unravel. The exchange of Hari Raya greetings between Brunei and Singaporean state officials goes beyond formality; it depicts and reflects the depth and knitness of bilateral ties between the two countries. Gradually, trust between state officials became established not only at the bilateral level but also through personal and bureaucratic goodwill.
Even the COVID-19 pandemic did not halt this tradition between the two nations. In an era where physical contact and travel was impossible, this custom was not only retained but modified into a goodwill phone call conveyed by then Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong to the Sultan of Brunei.
During the Hari Raya celebrations of 2024, Brunei-Singapore ties were strengthened when both countries celebrated forty years of diplomatic relations, notably commemorated by a courtesy call with His Royal Highness Prince Haji Al-Muhtadee Billah ibni Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah,the Crown Prince and Senior Minister at the Prime Minister’s Office in Brunei. In 2025, Osman at the Singaporean High Commission’s Hari Raya open house expressed that the “relationship between Brunei and Singapore is built on sincerity from all levels of society”.
This year, the bilateral traditions remain steadfast. Singapore’s Acting Minister-in-charge of Muslim Affairs and Senior Minister of State at the Ministry of Home Affairs, Dr Muhammad Faishal Ibrahim and his spouse, who not only stayed in Brunei three days during the festive celebrations, also graced an exchange of souvenirs with Brunei’s Minister of Religious Affairs, Dato Paduka Seri Setia Ustaz Awang Haji Badaruddin.
As Brunei and Singapore have demonstrated, Eid in this corner of the world does more than mark the end of the holy month of Ramadhan. It celebrates the renewal of ties – between families, communities, and states. Beyond celebration, Eid is a home within cultural diplomacy, nowhere more visibly seen than in the ties between the two Southeast Asian nations.
Maryam is a first-year International Relations and Politics student at the University of Sheffield, with an academic focus on Southeast Asia—particularly Maritime Southeast Asia—and the Middle East. She aspires to a career in diplomacy and academia and is committed to fostering international dialogue and advancing scholarly engagement with global issues. Beyond her academic work, she pursues creative interests and voluntary initiatives that broaden her perspectives on public service.
Malaysia 🇲🇾
Muted Voices, Fragile Balance
by Sydney Gan, in Kuala Lumpur
On 30 March, the National Unity Ministry announced that it is developing guidelines for Members of Parliament (MPs) to restrict discussion of sensitive issues relating to race, religion, and royalty (the ‘3Rs’) during Dewan Rakyat debates. Deputy Minister R. Yuneswaran acknowledged that parliamentarians are protected by immunity in the Dewan, but argued that further safeguards are needed to ensure discussions are conducted “responsibly” without provoking public discord. This apparent move to constrain parliamentary speech raises serious questions about constitutional accountability and the separation of powers, with potential implications for policymaking in Malaysia’s regulatory landscape.
What does it mean when policies are empowered to muzzle their own makers? At its core, this issue goes back to the principle of separation of powers: that the legislative (Parliament), executive (Cabinet), and judicial (courts) branches must remain distinct to prevent the concentration of authority. The Legislature’s role is to scrutinise and challenge the executive, reflecting the democratic will of the people. In Malaysia, however, this balance is already structurally compromised, as the Cabinet is drawn from Parliament itself. Any further limitation - particularly one that restricts MPs from raising or debating contentious issues - risks eroding Parliament’s most fundamental function as a check and balance on executive power.
This concern is closely tied to the rationale behind parliamentary immunity, which was enshrined at the founding of the system. This privilege is not granted on an individualistic level, but to ensure that elected representatives can articulate the interests, concerns, and dissent of their constituents without fear. Yet immunity has also been misused, as seen at least 43 instances recorded in Pusat Komas’s Malaysia Racism Report 2025, thus raising the question of how to balance protection with accountability.
In this context, it is apparent that broad restrictions on debates involving the 3Rs risk undermining the supposed duty of the elected representatives. At the same time, the issue cannot be viewed in isolation from the realities of parliamentary discourse. More than ever, there is a need to highlight the necessary implementation of appropriate safeguards - in the form of training, re-education, and consolidated public pressure in condemning hateful speech. Instead of a blanket ban, this debate also taps into the age-old balancing act between hate speech with the right to expression - the former is the unfortunate but inevitable byproduct of the latter and must be dealt with by systematic procedures in place that does not undermine the freedom of expression.
Presently, Malaysia is on the cusp of introducing the National Harmony Act, first proposed by the Human Rights Commission of Malaysia. The Act envisions the creation of a National Harmony Commission to act as a neutral third-party in managing racial and religious tensions. Its eventual design and implementation could significantly shape how sensitive issues are addressed both within and beyond Parliament, with far-reaching implications for the country’s democracy.
Sydney holds a Bachelor of Laws from King’s College London, where she focused on Human Rights Law, Criminology, and Public & Administrative Law. She is an Analyst at Asia Group Advisors, providing policy analysis and strategic guidance across the tech, sustainability, and gaming sectors in Southeast Asia. Prior to joining AGA, she worked in the social development sector in London, contributing to the Ukraine Judicial Training Programme through research on war crimes adjudication and the development of a legal training curriculum with high court magistrates.
Indonesia 🇮🇩
Mitigating Oil Price Shock to Indonesia’s State Coffers
by Muhammad Rayhansyah Jasin
A month since the US-Israeli joint attack against Iran has brought oil price, measured by the international benchmark of Brent crude, jumped more than 70% to $115. Many market participants have started to internalize the risk of a “higher-for-longer” oil shock that could see crude futures go as high as $200 per barrel. Tehran’s swift response to blockade the Strait of Hormuz by launching missiles against all unauthorized ships is effectively choking off a fifth of oil global supply, equivalent to 20 million barrels, stoking fuel-induced inflationary shocks all around Europe and Southeast Asia.
ASEAN governments have been absorbing the shocks differently, from letting gasoline prices go up such as in Cambodia, Laos, Singapore, and the Philippines, slashing budget subsidies for fuel expenses like in Malaysia and Thailand, or instead relying further to fiscal measurements in keeping stable rates as in Indonesia. To keep gasoline prices unchanged for the past month, the Indonesia government is predicted to add more than Rp 100 Trillions (~$60 Billions) of subsidies if global oil price continues to hover above $80 per barrel, risking increased budget deficits to state coffers. The 2026 State Budget states that for every $1 increase in average global oil price, state income will rise around Rp 3.5 Trillions (~$200 Million) yet it will also incur Rp 10.3 Trillions (~$650 Million) additional spending, thus widening existing deficits. Investor’s trust towards the government’s fiscal handling is also being tested as the national bond market yield is nearing 7%.
In a bid to mitigate further oil surge by reducing overall demand, the government passed a national mandate to allow workers to a one-day work-from-home (WFH) scheme every week starting from April 1. The Minister of Finance, Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, reasoned that similar policies had been implemented before and not only that WFH could reduce 20% of potential demand, this policy would also help workers reduce commuting cost and direct dispensable income for other needs. Another demand-side restriction of maximum purchase volume of 50 litres/day for every personal vehicle unit is also put in place. Business actors have voiced concerns that such demand-side policies could slow economic activities especially for the transportation sector, notably ride-hailing services and mobility-linked industries, while also reducing potential revenue of Micro, Small and Medium (MSE) enterprises such as food stalls and catering vendors as they rely heavily on high foot traffic surrounding office areas.
Oil shocks can serve as blessing-in-disguise particularly for the electric vehicle (EV) market as it gives reliable alternatives of transportation. Yet, as the Indonesian automotive industry recorded lower sales in 2025 compared to 2024 figures, prolonged oil surge could entice customers to wait out purchasing new cars and damage demand further. Recently, President Prabowo Subianto has touted his grand idea to fasten the EV transition to better insulate consumers from future oil shocks as his administration is preparing to launch up to 55 megawatts of new electricity plants. Yet as this process would take at least years to materialize, perhaps a more immediate solution is for the government to enlarge oil storage capacity so that short-term shortages can be mitigated more than just 20-25 days. Ultimately, this Iranian War-induced oil shock provides yet another lesson for governments everywhere to ground national policies on informed, multiple-scenario-based guesses, instead of looking for easy wayouts based on political hunches and hollow rhetorics.
Rayhan is pursuing an Erasmus Mundus Joint Master’s Degree in Public Policy at Central European University and the Institut Barcelona d’Estudis Internacionals. He holds a Bachelor of Social Sciences in International Relations and Political Economy from Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University. His current research focuses on the socio-economic impacts of Indonesia’s nickel mining industry on local communities and national development.
Editorial Deadline 28/03/2025 11:59 PM (UTC +8)
