Gunshots Heard Round the World
Issue 40 — Key Developments Across the Philippines, Singapore, and Vietnam
Editor’s Note
by Karen Ysabelle R. David, Lead Editor - Pacific Corridor Desk
Throughout history, there have been shots heard round the world, ones that began world-altering wars. Now, as gunshots echo from the Middle East and reverberate globally, only time will tell if this conflict will be similarly momentous. But as early as now, export-dependent Vietnam is feeling these echoes acutely. Can its economic fundamentals and ambitions withstand surging logistics costs and rising fuel prices?
From Singapore, updates on a government fully in control and on top of its game: the passage of the city-state’s highest budget to date; debates on tobacco control; and swift actions to maintain racial and religious harmony.
Meanwhile, over in the Philippines, the Vice President’s impeachment saga takes a new and sexist turn, thanks to a Congressman’s remarks during a hearing. The episode, happening as it did during International Women’s Month, raises broader questions about the limits of parliamentary immunity, and how easily it can lead to impunity.
Vietnam 🇻🇳
Guns, Ships, and Growth: Vietnam’s Geoeconomic Stress Test in 2026
by Tri Vo, in Ho Chi Minh City
With the dawn of 2026 came geopolitical tremors emanating from the Middle East, sending shockwaves directly into Southeast Asia’s manufacturing hubs. Escalating regional conflicts have severely compromised the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, the latter of which is the artery through which roughly 20% of global crude oil shipments flow, forcing international shipping lines into confusion and apprehension. For Vietnam, a heavily export-dependent economy, the roaring guns 3,000 miles away reverberate deeply throughout the country’s supply chain.
According to reports from early March, businesses in Ho Chi Minh City are already bearing the brunt of surging logistics costs as vessels are forced to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. The mathematics, as a result, are punishing for manufacturers. Forgoing the Suez Canal adds up to four weeks of transit time, effectively reducing global shipping capacity and stranding empty containers. Consequently, Vietnamese exporters are experiencing severe delays and sharp increases in freight surcharges, threatening to erode profit margins during peak seasons later in the year. Logistics firms warn that war-risk surcharges alone could climb by US$200 to US$500 per container. Thus, exporters are now caught between paying more elevated premium rates to secure vessel space or risking contract cancellations from buyers in European and North American markets.
Beyond immediate logistics, the more serious macroeconomic threat lies in input inflation. With global crude oil prices rising sharply in response to Middle Eastern volatility, Vietnam’s vulnerability as a net importer of petroleum products is further highlighted. Higher fuel prices then cascade rapidly through the economy, inflating the cost of domestic transport, electricity generation, and manufacturing input as well as other goods, given that the Consumer Price Index can increase by 3.6%, 4.1%, or up to 4.6% in the worst case.
This worst-case projection directly threatens the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV)’s mandate, which sets a target of keeping average inflation at around 4.5% for the year. If sustained energy shocks push transportation and raw material costs higher, defending this very threshold will put policymakers into an unenviable bind. Specifically, the SBV and the Ministry of Finance now face a delicate balancing act between fiscal stimulus (including the rollout of high public investment and tax support, including a 2% VAT cut through the end of the year) to boost economic growth to achieve the ambitious double-digit economic growth target of 10%. At the same time, these institutions are also mandated to maintain macroeconomic stability and keep inflation in check.
Ultimately, the Middle Eastern upheaval is a harsh stress test for Vietnam’s 2026 economic ambitions. While the country’s economic fundamentals remain highly competitive, the current crisis highlights the hidden costs of deep global integration. To sustain momentum, policymakers and logistics firms must rapidly develop strategic buffers, ranging from nearshoring vital inputs to securing long-term freight contracts, to insulate the national energy supply chain by diversifying energy sources to mitigate risk exposure. The experience and outcomes of Vietnam’s economic journey in 2026 can prove useful for ASEAN as a whole, as the bloc is also in a similar bind at this very moment.
Tri has experience in management consulting and strategy, having worked with institutions such as the UNDP, The Asia Group, and ARC Group. He has provided strategic, legal, and operational insights to clients in sectors including manufacturing, energy, and technology. He holds both academic and professional experience related to Southeast and East Asia, with a focus on regional development and policy.
Singapore 🇸🇬
Disciplining, Restricting, and Banning the Singapore Way
by Nurul Aini, in Singapore
On 6 March 2026, the Members of Parliament (MPs) of Singapore were reminded of their responsibility as politicians governing the country. Rounding up this year’s budget of SGD 200 billion — the city-state’s highest budget to date — the Speaker of Parliament, Mr Seah Kian Peng, emphasized the importance of clear and succinct messages in shaping the understanding of the public of how policies will shape their lives. Peng reminded them to “keep our eyes on the horizon that is the Singaporean people.”
When it comes to national wellbeing, Parliament has also been debating the possibility of banning flavored tobacco, which, according to Minister of State of Health Rahayu Mahzam, increases the risk of addiction among the youth. Singapore had previously imposed a 20% tax on tobacco products on 12 February 2026 — the additional tax is projected to generate about SGD 150 million in additional revenue. Parents like Estelle Low welcome the move as a necessary act of constructing inaccessibility for the benefit of public health while also hoping, through her personal recount of her son’s experience, that this move will spark reflection in smokers on the potential harmful effects of children exposed to toxic chemicals in cigarettes. Others like Manu Bhaskaran, a veteran economist and partner at research and advisory firm Centennial Asia Advisors, question the effect that this will have on smuggled tobacco products and higher cost of living.
While banning and restricting seem to be Singapore’s mode of advancing behavioral policy, there are on-the-ground approaches to encourage smokers to voluntarily quit smoking. When it comes to tobacco control, Singapore ranked second after Thailand in 2025, with four other countries — Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam — banning e-cigarettes and heated tobacco products.
In other news, on 8 March 2026, the Singapore government issued a disabling direction to Meta to restrict the circulation of a video of a man stepping on the Qur’an in a public bus in Singapore. The Singaporean man had previously been convicted under Section 17F(4) of the Maintenance of Religious Harmony Act 1990, jailed in July 2025, and then released in December 2025. He was also found to show signs of being mentally unwell. The Minister of Law, K. Shanmugam, highlighted that while the man is currently overseas, he will be questioned by the police when he returns.
The recirculation of the video, however, followed a similar case in Malaysia that happened on 22 February 2026. This case involved a Malaysian student stepping on the Qur’an and who had then posted it on the social media platform Threads. Subsequently, the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commissions (MCMC) debunked the video as unrelated to the Malaysian man, and highlighted that Singapore’s case was an old one. The Malaysian man is currently under trial for his offenses. This episode of desecrating a religious text, and the swift action by both governments to condemn any intentional acts of inciting religious sensitivities, detain offenders, and work in tandem to debunk further misunderstandings demonstrate the two countries’ commitment to ensuring that racial and religious harmony are maintained within and across borders, and that misunderstandings or fake news do not escalate.
Aini is currently pursuing a master’s degree in English literature at Nanyang Technological University. She has experience working in youth groups, contributing to the planning and management of outreach activities.
The Philippines 🇵🇭
Immunity and Impunity
by Arianne De Guzman, in Bulacan
This March, just as the Philippines celebrates International Women’s Month, Quezon City Representative Bong Suntay recounted the following anecdote about a Filipina celebrity during a House Committee on Justice hearing on Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment complaint:
“You know, once when I was in Shangri-La, I saw Anne Curtis. She is really beautiful. You know, a desire inside me welled up. I felt the heat, and I just imagined what could happen. But of course, that is only my imagination. But I think I cannot be charged for what I was able to imagine.”
The House of Representatives (HoR) ordered him to appear before the Committee on Ethics over his remarks, in addition to complaints filed to the Office of the Ombudsman, citing potential violation of the Safe Spaces Act, the Magna Carta of Women, and the Code of Conduct and Ethical Standards for Public Officials and Employees. The Philippine Commission on Women (PCW) warned that Rep. Suntay’s remark risks reinforcing the culture of harassment and disrespect toward women, noting that his institutional authority as a public official gives him significant influence over societal norms.
Rep. Suntay’s legal counsel, Atty. Ferdinand Topacio, argued that any complaint or potential charges are “constitutionally baseless,” emphasizing that such remarks are protected by the 1987 Constitution.
This issue exposes a fundamental constitutional paradox. Despite the enactment of the Safe Spaces Act to curb gender-based sexual harassment and penalize sexist or misogynistic remarks both in public and professional settings, Article VI, Section 11 of the 1987 Constitution grants members of the Congress a speech-and-debate privilege, protecting them from being questioned or held liable for statements made during proceedings. This privilege is intended to ensure legislative independence and prevent intimidation through litigation or criminal suits. However, the same privilege risks enabling the Congress to vindicate themselves regardless of violation of other laws.
Far Eastern University and Ateneo Law Professor Mel Sta. Maria has clarified that parliamentary immunity cannot be used to excuse sexist or harassing language, especially in cases where it has no connection to the legislative purpose at hand. He also asserted that the privilege covers legitimate legislative speech, but not irrelevant personal commentary that violates other laws.
Rep. Suntay’s desire is immaterial to the issue of an impeachment complaint. Immunity should not override the dignity of a person and violate the right to privacy, especially if the person is not a party to the legislative proceedings. A broad interpretation of immunity could create a zone of impunity where public officials can harass individuals without accountability. On the other hand, interpreting it too literally could impede the independence of legislative deliberation. The balance between these extremes remains unsettled.
When laws that protect dignity and equality cannot be enforced within legislative spaces, attaining accountability can be limited to ethical complaint mechanisms and public scrutiny. Balancing constitutional protections with modern gender norms means clearly defining the limits of immunity while ensuring that institutions uphold respect for human dignity.
Arianne has worked in legal research at the Philippines Department of Justice and in policy research at De La Salle University’s Jesse M. Robredo Institute of Governance, supporting projects on systemic reform. She holds a degree in Political Science from Colegio de San Juan de Letran and is pursuing a master’s in Sociology at the University of the Philippines Diliman. She is also involved in youth development and grassroots advocacy through the Rotaract Club of Santa Maria.
Editorial Deadline 17/03/2026 11:59 PM (UTC +8)
