Jakarta's Grand Gamble
Issue 20 — Key Developments Across Brunei, Indonesia, and Malaysia
Editor’s Note
by Haniva Sekar Deanty, Lead Editor - Maritime Crescent Desk
This week’s Maritime Crescent looks at how Southeast Asia is redefining its strength, whether through partnership, diplomacy, or fiscal direction.
In Indonesia, diplomacy has taken a sharp turn under the Prabowo–Gibran administration. This week, Hree Putri Samudra reflects the country’s new omnidirectional strategy. Bold but sometimes controversial, this strategy signals ambition on a global scale. Yet questions linger about its balance between statecraft and personal politics. As Jakarta’s diplomatic machinery expands its reach, the test will be whether these ambitions can translate into credibility and consistency abroad.
Brunei and the Philippines continue to show what steady, long-term cooperation looks like. Their ties extend far beyond defence, weaving through trade, education, agriculture, and cultural exchange. It’s a reminder that regional friendships, when nurtured patiently, can evolve into strategic assets that bring stability and shared growth. Syimah Johari in Brunei revisits the two countries’ strategic partnership.
Meanwhile, Edrina Lisa Ozaidi assesses Malaysia’s 2026 “People’s Budget” and how it sets a pragmatic tone. It commits to fiscal discipline while investing heavily in digital infrastructure, green finance, and workforce development. The budget’s focus on AI, renewable energy, and SME empowerment positions Malaysia as a model for how national priorities can align with ASEAN’s regional goals.
Indonesia 🇮🇩
One Year of Omnidirectional Diplomacy
by Hree Putri Samudra, in Jakarta
One year into the Prabowo-Gibran administration marks a fundamental shift in Indonesian diplomacy that is aggressive, occasionally controversial, and loaded with geopolitical calculation. What’s happening isn’t cosmetic change or rhetorical posturing but rather a structural transformation from the traditionally reactive “bebas-aktif” doctrine into a proactive and omnidirectional strategy. The question isn’t about ambition alone but whether execution can maintain equilibrium between national interests and mounting global pressures.
The October 2025 cabinet meeting revealed intensifying power consolidation centered on President Prabowo’s persona, aligning strategic ministries including Foreign Affairs, Defense, Industry, and the Coordinating Ministry for Political, Legal and Security Affairs into a multifaceted framework.
Foreign Minister Sugiono spearheads this strategy. Sugiono proved Indonesia’s diplomatic capability through bold moves: becoming the first Indonesian Foreign Minister to visit North Korea since 2013 on October 10–11, 2025, putting Indonesia in a strategic position as a diplomatic bridge between Pyongyang and ASEAN. The call with Marco Rubio discussing regional stability including maritime security in the South China Sea, further impacts the increasingly complex Indo-Pacific landscape, while Indonesia plays an active role in BRICS, and pursues OECD membership.
However, diplomatic effectiveness came under scrutiny following the “hot mic” incident between Prabowo and Trump in Egypt, which exposed conversations suggesting business involvement of the Trump family with Indonesia. The phrase “Can I meet Eric [Trump]?” raised doubts about boundaries between state diplomacy and business interests, revealing deeper problems: is Indonesia’s omnidirectional diplomacy institutionally mature, or merely too personal and vulnerable to conflicts of interest?
Indonesia’s BRICS membership represents a brilliant strategy for alliance diversification. Its accession process took less than three months, signaling Indonesia’s high strategic value. Sugiono emphasized, “This decision isn’t overnight work but rather the fruit of consistency and steadfastness in Indonesian diplomacy over decades.” Yet implementation demands strict policy consistency and transparency.
At the implementation level, Sugiono has mandated a proactive synergy between diplomacy and economic policy. A closed-door briefing in July 2025 revealed Sugiono directed all Indonesian ambassadors to act as de facto investment scouts for Danantara, Indonesia’s sovereign wealth fund. Deputy Foreign Minister Arrmanatha C. Nasir explicitly stated that diplomats must be “proactive and aggressive” in identifying strategic investment opportunities for Danantara. This transforms Indonesia’s diplomatic missions into an extension of its national investment arm, a novel approach designed to directly translate diplomatic access into economic gains. Furthermore, defense diplomacy becomes a vital instrument in this omni strategy through execution of major joint military exercises like MNEK 2025, affirming Indonesia as regional leader and mediator between competing great powers.
Second-year predictions depend heavily on success in translating hyperactive diplomacy into concrete economic fruits. Fragmented ASEAN, sharpening US-China rivalry, and domestic pressure demand enhanced cabinet capability in delivery and accountability phases, not just consolidation. Sugiono and the Foreign Ministry team must prove this strategy isn’t empty rhetoric but clear and transparent measurable work programs. In conclusion, Indonesia’s diplomatic transformation under Prabowo-Gibran brings unprecedented global ambition alongside substantial risks requiring mature institutional and political readiness.
Hree serves as Project Associate for Asia and the Pacific at the Global Network of Women Peacebuilders (GNWP), where she leads multi-country initiatives integrating Women, Peace and Security (WPS), and Youth, Peace and Security (YPS) frameworks into security policies across ASEAN and South Asia. She is also a Non-Resident Fellow at the University of Glasgow’s Atomic Anxiety in the New Nuclear Age program. Previously, she served as Chair of the Humanitarian Disarmament and Inclusive Governance Working Group at the British American Security Information Council (BASIC), advocating for more accountable and inclusive nuclear policy frameworks.
Brunei Darussalam 🇧🇳
A Strengthened Partnership Between Brunei and the Philippines
by Syimah Johari, in Bandar Seri Begawan
On the 10th of October 2025, Gilbert Teodoro, Visiting Secretary of National Defense of Philippines, paid an official visit to the Ministry of Defence in Brunei Darussalam. The visit was welcomed by the Minister at the Prime Minister’s Office and Minister of Defence II, Pehin Datu Lailaraja Major General (Rtd) Dato Paduka Seri Awang Haji Halbi bin Haji Mohd Yussof. The partnership between Brunei and the Philippines has continued to deepen through ongoing Joint Defence Working Committee (JDWC) meetings and active exchanges involving visits, military exercises, training, and courses. However, its long-standing partnership is not just limited to defence.
Brunei and the Philippines continue to deepen their long-standing partnership through a range of strategic initiatives – like trade in agriculture and technology, labour, education, health and culture, reflecting a deep and multifaceted friendship. During Brunei’s celebration of the 127th Philippine Independence Anniversary, the Philippine Ambassador highlighted ongoing cooperation supporting Brunei Vision 2035 – particularly in economic diversification, halal collaboration, Islamic finance, tourism, and trade. This spirit of collaboration is further reflected in the joint venture between Brunei’s Aegis Secure Solution Corp and the Philippines’ Eagle Corinthians Integrated Security, which aims to provide comprehensive cash security solutions through the exchange of expertise and advanced technology in secure cash transportation. Cooperation also extends to the agriculture sector, where a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed to strengthen collaboration in agriculture and fisheries, reaffirming both countries’ shared commitment to enhancing agri-fisheries systems and ensuring long-term food security.
Building on these bilateral initiatives, Brunei and the Philippines also strengthen their partnership through active engagement in regional and international forums such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the East Asia Summit (EAS), Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the Asia Regional Forum, and the Non-Aligned Movement. These organisations provide opportunities for both countries to share knowledge, coordinate policies, and collaborate with regional partners on political, security and economic matters.
These initiatives and collaborations underscore the enduring strength of Brunei–Philippines relations, built on mutual trust, shared goals, and a commitment to regional prosperity. From bilateral projects in economic development, security, and agriculture to active participation in regional and international forums, the partnership reflects a forward-looking vision that benefits not only both nations but also the broader Southeast Asian region. As Brunei and the Philippines continue to work closely together, their cooperation serves as a model for how long-standing relationships can evolve to meet the challenges and opportunities of today’s interconnected world.
Syimah is a graduate of King’s College London with a BA in International Relations. With a strong focus on diplomacy, regional cooperation, and development policy, she is passionate about contributing to meaningful change through public service. Currently, she is involved in poverty alleviation work through a local NGO.
Malaysia 🇲🇾
Malaysia’s National Budget for 2026: How does it Affect ASEAN?
by Edrina Lisa Ozaidi, in WP Kuala Lumpur
Themed “A People’s Budget,” Malaysia’s recently tabled 2026 national budget outlines the government’s strategic policies and core national agenda. At its core, the budget conveys two messages: (1) a commitment to address economic challenges and to avoid excessive debt; (2) to promote fiscal discipline and institutional strengthening for long-term national salvation.
The budget outlines three interconnected core economic strategies to drive national and regional agendas. The first one is to consolidate good fiscal and governance by prioritising long-term financial health, which can be achieved by rebuilding fiscal buffers and increasing revenue through tighter enforcement. The second strategy — accelerating digital and green transition through targeted, large-scale investment in future-proof industries like AI, semiconductors and renewable energy. Lastly, enhancing human capital and SME resilience by ensuring national economic benefits are inclusive through workforce-upskilling and SMEs empowerment.
Compared to the previous year, the budget demonstrates a clear progress in fiscal management in which the total expenditure increased from RM421 billion to RM470 billion. The increment is targeted to accommodate the support for developmental projects but critically, the fiscal is targeted to narrow from 3.8% this year to 3.5% of GDP, signalling a commitment to growth. Furthermore, the budget sees an increase in allocation for Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) and human resources development particularly in high-technology fields, saw a notable increase, reinforcing the push toward a high-skilled, high-income economy.
For Malaysian consumers, the budget highlights heavily on creating a competitive, future-ready workforce while providing a stronger safety net. Significant funding on Human Resource Development Corporation (HRD Corp) delivers millions of targeted training opportunities in high-growth sectors like electric vehicles (EVs) and digital transformation.
This directly impacts the ability of local talent to capitalise on quality job creation spurred by the renewed investment in the New Industrial Master Plan (NIMP). For SMEs, the budget provides essential microfinancing and tax deductions for training in crucial areas like AI and cybersecurity, fostering resilience and enabling small businesses to adopt digital tools, ensuring that growth is accessible and inclusive.
The domestic strategies articulated in Budget 2026 hold profound relevance for the entire ASEAN bloc, serving as a functional blueprint for the region’s shared goals. Firstly, digital integration has a big allocation of RM2 billion to develop Malaysia’s sovereign AI cloud infrastructure. This definitely highlights the country’s position as vital in Southeast Asia’s digital economy. Most importantly, this initiative is perfectly aligned with ASEAN’s effort to finalise the Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA) by providing robust and secure regional data infrastructure.
The e-invoicing initiative and enhanced custom enforcement simplifies and standardise trade documentation and compliance. This initiative directly addresses the persistent challenges of non-tariff barriers (NTBs) and low intra-ASEAN trade flows.
The budget initiative of funding green finance schemes enhances Malaysia’s stance in sustainability leadership and drives its National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR). This also sets a clear example for neighbouring countries by setting a clear standard for sustainable practices and encouraging cross-border investments in green-tech while accelerating ASEAN’s collective climate resilience goals.
Edrina is a communications professional with a background in international relations. She holds a degree from the University of Nottingham Malaysia and has worked across public relations and social media for organizations in the development, education, and corporate sectors. Her work focuses on crafting narratives around regional affairs and strengthening media engagement across Southeast Asia.
Editorial Deadline 19/10/2025 11:59 PM (UTC +8)
Thanks for writing this, it clarifies a lot. Your analysis of Indonesia's omnidirectional strategy is realy sharp. It's ambitious, for sure. But I wonder how such a broad strategy can maintain consistency and core values. That balance is key, no?