Editor’s Note
by Haniva Sekar Deanty, Lead Editor - Maritime Crescent Desk
In Malaysia, Sydney Gan looks at how the collapse of a constitutional amendment aimed at limiting the Prime Minister’s tenure has reignited concerns over parliamentary absenteeism and political coordination within the unity government.
In Indonesia, Rayhan Jasin examines how a negative credit outlook raises questions about fiscal discipline and the sustainability of expansive economic ambitions.
Meanwhile, our guest contributor for this week assesses Brunei’s response to the escalating conflict in the Gulf, illustrating the delicate balancing act smaller states must perform as geopolitical tensions intensify.
This week’s Maritime Crescent may bring different developments in different areas, but they reveal the fine margins on which governance, economic confidence and regional stability often rest. The stakes hinge on small shifts that carry outsized consequences. It is probably worth remembering that sometimes warnings can be subtle.
Malaysia 🇲🇾
Malaysia’s Parlimentarian Attendance Problem
by Sydney Gan, in Kuala Lumpur
The Constitution (Amendment) Bill 2026, which was set to cap the Prime Minister’s tenure at 10 years, failed to pass during its Second Reading by two votes short of the 3/4 majority. 32 MPS were absent on that day, while another 44 failed to vote. On the government’s side, eight parliamentarians were absent during voting on the Bill.
The failure to enact this high-profile amendment is a reputational and politically charged blow to Anwar’s administration. Considering that it is a non-partisan issue that would have effortlessly underscored Anwar’s image-building as a responsible global leader and, at the same time, delivered a strong message against unchecked executive power, this constitutional amendment should have been an easy win on all accounts. However, now met with hugely publicized failure, this once sure-thing now risks jeopardizing Anwar’s on-the-ground sentiment and raises pressing questions about the cohesion of his unity government, as his second-term campaigning is expected to lift off at the latest by 2027.
Significantly, this case study goes to the heart of a larger problem plaguing Malaysian politics - chronic absenteeism in Parliament. In December 2025, the New Straits Times published a scathing analysis of attendance during the year’s Dewan Rakyat sittings, exposing absurdly high absences among senior parliamentarians, including former defence minister Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein, who missed the most sittings with 69 absences. The exposé stirred considerable uproar in the media, and though it had previously been acknowledged by Parliament Speaker Tan Sri Johari Abdul, he firmly stated that no compulsory attendance would be instituted, emphasizing the onus on Members of Parliament (MPs).
Since the Bill has been deferred to the next Parliament sitting, absent Parliamentarians are beginning to come forward with their reasons for non-attendance, ranging from sickness to traffic congestion. Julau MP Larry Sng called out the Government Backbenchers Club (BBC) for its last-minute voting notice, noting that the Bill’s failure was due to a “lack of unified leadership and coordination”. However, an MP’s attendance at Parliament has not been without incentive - each Parliamentarian is entitled to RM400 of Parliamentary session allowance per day, which, for 78-day sittings like in 2025, could amount to RM31,200. Not to mention that attendance is the most basic mandate for an elected local representative - persistent absenteeism silences affected constituents’ voices from the larger fabric of democracy and sends a problematic message about leaders’ weakening public duty. Prof Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian of Universiti Sains Malaysia notes the “quiet crisis” for democracy, linking Parliamentary absenteeism to waning parliamentary legitimacy.
This is not a one-time issue but a public trust matter that transcends government administrations. TRANSPARENCY International Malaysia (TI-M) called for stronger measures, including the publication of daily attendance records and the designation of key votes that require publicly available written reasons for absence. Drawing on other regions, such as Ghana’s automatic seat vacation after 15 absences or Iran’s mandatory public absence announcements, Malaysia must take a bold step towards democratic accountability.
Sydney holds a Bachelor of Laws from King’s College London, where she focused on Human Rights Law, Criminology, and Public & Administrative Law. She is an Analyst at Asia Group Advisors, providing policy analysis and strategic guidance across the tech, sustainability, and gaming sectors in Southeast Asia. Prior to joining AGA, she worked in the social development sector in London, contributing to the Ukraine Judicial Training Programme through research on war crimes adjudication and the development of a legal training curriculum with high court magistrates.
Indonesia 🇮🇩
Indonesia’s Downgraded Credit Rating Debacle
by Muhammad Rayhansyah Jasin
Another downgrade, another blow to Indonesia’s credit rating credibility. On May 4, Fitch ratings updated its outlook assessment on Indonesia’s long-term sovereign bond from Stable to Negative despite maintaining the Rupiah-denominated treasuries at BBB. The move came just weeks after Moody’s first downgraded the IDR bond prospect to Negative following the $120 Billion rout on Indonesian Stock Exchange due to transparency issues flagged by index provider MSCI. S&P Global has also warned Indonesian officials that sustained pressure of interest payments going beyond 15% of total government revenue would result in the downgrading of Indonesia’s credit rating.
Both Fitch and Moody’s assessments cited policy uncertainty over President Prabowo Subianto’s aggressive spending spree, in hopes to achieve 8% annual growth, that has caused more than Rp 135 trillion of public budget shortfall between January and February 2026, a whopping 300% increase from the same period last year. The assessments also singled out the ‘free nutritious meal’ program’s impact on the national budget, amounted to 1.3% of GDP for 2025-2029, as a potential drive to the legally-mandated 3% fiscal deficit ceiling. Fitch also forecasted government’s tax revenue to remain dismal at 13.3% of GDP, half of the average BBB countries’ of 25.5%, amidst slow mobilization of alternative resource income, permanent diversion of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) dividend to the sovereign wealth fund of Danantara, and minimum tax compliance by businesses.
The timing of this reporting also came at the worst of times, as global oil price has been surging to $114, up 24% from $70 on February 27, following the start of the Iranian conflict. Recent analysis made by the economic think tank INDEF suggested that oil price beyond $100 could widen Indonesia’s budget deficit to more than 4% of GDP although Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa has stated willingness to consider cuts to the free meal program if sky-high price persisted throughout 2026.
If no improvements are made within the next 12-24 months following this Negative outlook update, Indonesia’s credit rating may risk being downgraded to BB+, stripping the country of its investment grade label, and potentially pushing the already weakened IDR value beyond 17,000 per USD. Although Bank Indonesia still maintains reserves equivalent to $154.6 billion (January 2026), persistent shock to oil price, shipping cost, and logistics could still worsen Indonesia’s ability to absorb impact to its vulnerable middle class. Recent reporting by Kompas shows the rise of job hopping and job hugging phenomenon has pushed more than 3.5 million college graduates to take informal jobs in 2024.
Now the ball is in Prabowo’s and his cabinet’s court — whether they choose to act swiftly and push through economic reforms, or remain mired in denial by citing the “strong fundamentals of Indonesia’s economy,” their decision will shape the development trajectory of more than 290 million people.
Rayhan is pursuing an Erasmus Mundus Joint Master’s Degree in Public Policy at Central European University and the Institut Barcelona d’Estudis Internacionals. He holds a Bachelor of Social Sciences in International Relations and Political Economy from Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University. His current research focuses on the socio-economic impacts of Indonesia’s nickel mining industry on local communities and national development.
Brunei Darussalam 🇧🇳
Brunei’s Response Amidst The Geopolitical Unrest
by Catherine
On 28 February 2026, Iran was met with attacks from the State of Israel and the USA following the unsuccessful nuclear negotiations. As a response, Iran aimed missiles on US bases in the Gulf region. Attacks and retaliation from both parties have escalated and affected all nations bordering the Persian Gulf, which have led to thousands of casualties in the region.
As the unrest continues to persist, Brunei is observing it closely and taking precautionary measures. On 1 March 2026, Brunei condemned aggressions against the Islamic Republic of Iran. Brunei positioned itself as an active diplomatic interlocutor during the bilateral meeting between Brunei’s Second Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dato Erywan Yusof and Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov as both ministers reaffirmed their adherence to international law and the UN Charter. Lavrov declared that it is “imperative to categorically and resolutely call for an immediate cessation of hostilities from all sides” while Dato Errywan Yusof expressed his distress that this war had occurred during the sacred observances of Ramadan, Lent and the Jewish festival of Purim.
As of 7 March, there has yet to be an official statement published by the Bruneian government against Iran’s retaliations. Although a report from QNA published on 5 March stated that Dato Erywan Yusof made a private call to Sultan Al Muraikhi, Qatar’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs stating Brunei’s denunciation of Iranian attacks on sovereign territories. He subsequently also held calls with Prince Faisal bin Farhan and Dr Mohammad Mustafa, Foreign Ministers of Saudi Arabia and Palestine respectively.
Swift and calculated decisions have been made by the government. Through press releases issued on 3rd March, Brunei reaffirms that no citizen has registered their presence in Iran. However, there is no exact data on how many Bruneians that reside in the region. They also mentioned the closure of the Embassy of Brunei in Iran until further notice as members of the embassy have been safely evacuated from Tehran. The Brunei diplomatic mission to Iran will continue operations at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Brunei.
Additionally, the government advises citizens to postpone travels to the Middle East and strongly discourages anyone to visit the region until stability is reached. To ensure further safety and well-being, they also urge Bruneians in affected nations to register with Brunei Missions Abroad if they have not yet done so. Furthermore, the Royal Brunei Airlines have made appropriate flight cancellations for destinations headed off and to London, Dubai and Jeddah within the affected period. Flights into and out of London that usually transit in Dubai are now made direct.
Brunei’s stance also reflects a wider regional concern, whereby Malaysia, Indonesia and other member countries feel the escalated economic and social costs as a result of this on-going conflict. Members of ASEAN have issued a joint Foreign Ministers’ statement urging for an immediate ceasefire and for all sides to resolve the issue through diplomacy.
Catherine is an external contributor at TAF.
Editorial Deadline 07/03/2025 11:59 PM (UTC +8)
