Putting a Price Tag on People
Issue 26— Key Developments Across Brunei, Indonesia, and Malaysia
Editor’s Note
by Haniva Sekar Deanty, Lead Editor - Maritime Crescent Desk
Across the Maritime Crescent, grievances deepen, pressures mount, but pockets of resilience continue to take shape.
In Northern Sumatra, the floods and landslides triggered by Cyclone Senyar have revealed how decades of environmental degradation have amplified the disaster. Rayhan Prabu looks at how the region’s extractive land-use is becoming no longer sustainable, with economic-losses now overtaking short-term gains that once justified it.
In Sabah, the state election delivered a strong mandate for local parties, signalling growing dissatisfaction with federal approaches to revenue distribution, autonomy and development. Muhammad Aiman reflects on the result’s clear message: representation must align with Sabah’s own priorities and long-standing grievances.
Bandar Seri Begawan, however, signals hope. Syimah Johari explores how the launch of the first-aiders on wheels initiative demonstrates a practical approach in improving community-level emergency response. While still volunteer-driven, the programme shows potential to enhance public safety if supported with long-term training and institutional backing.
Indonesia 🇮🇩
Sow the Wind...
by Rayhan Prabu Kusumo, in Jakarta
*Note: All figures reflect information available at the time of writing.
By December 2nd, Northern Sumatra’s floods and landslides had claimed 659 lives and displaced over 1 million people across Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra provinces, with 475 people still missing. Cyclone Senyar triggered the heaviest rainfall, turning rivers into torrents and hillsides into avalanches of mud. However, experts have pointed to a familiar culprit beyond the exceptional weather: environmental degradation.
Decades of forest clearing for timber concessions, palm oil plantations, and mining operations have stripped hillsides of their ability to absorb heavy rain. This was evidenced by floodwaters carrying perfectly cut logs downstream which natural causes alone could not have produced. The weather may have been exceptional, but Sumatra’s vulnerability to it was not.
The extractive economic logic has driven land use across Sumatra for generations. The calculation seemed straightforward enough as those resources were what Sumatra had to exploit, and converting them delivered measurable returns in jobs, exports, and government revenues. The trade-off was always framed as profits now, consequences later. Those consequences are now coming due.
Forests perform essential hydrological work through their root systems anchoring soil on slopes, canopies slowing rainfall, and layers of vegetation absorbing water like massive sponges. Strip that away and you’re left with compacted earth that sheds water instead of holding it, which creates the conditions for rapid runoff and slope failure.
The math is getting harder to ignore, with people losing their livelihoods as everything gets destroyed and washed away. The gap between what these sectors generate and what gets lost because of their consequences is narrowing, and continuing down this path means more disasters, more lives lost, and more communities rebuilding only to be hit again.
These disasters reveal a hard truth about what Sumatra can and cannot afford going forward. The island needs economic drivers that don’t require constant land expansion or forest clearing, which raises the question of what actually fits that criteria. Industrialization offers the most obvious path, with the manufacturing sector’s ability to create employment density without expanding physical footprint.
Value-added processing of existing commodities fits within this framework, and the Sei Mangkei Special Economic Zone already demonstrates this model with palm oil refining and rubber processing that needs replication across the island. The region has the fundamentals: ports, existing infrastructure, and proximity to Singapore and broader Southeast Asian markets. More processing locally means more value captured and less pressure to keep expanding plantation acreage.
Northern Sumatra provinces register among the highest unemployment rates on the island, each above the national average, showing the extractive sector isn’t delivering jobs at scale. And the economic imperative is clear, as the current model creates more vulnerability than value. Critically, this rebalancing needs to happen alongside better enforcement of land use regulations and active watershed restoration.
The shift needed is clear: rebalance the economy so growth doesn’t systematically create vulnerability. But entrenched interests, existing investments, and political inertia stand in the way. Those obstacles won’t survive the next disaster, but many more innocent lives will not either.
Rayhan has a background in government affairs and public policy, with experience across government institutions and advisory firms. His work focuses on the intersection of geopolitics, policy, and risk, with expertise in advocacy, regulatory analysis, and stakeholder engagement. He holds a degree in Government from Universitas Padjadjaran, and has completed an exchange at Universitat Pompeu Fabra in Spain, focusing on global politics and sustainability.
Malaysia 🇲🇾
A Wake-Up Call for Federalism
by Muhammad Aiman Bin Roszaimi, in Cyberjaya
On 29 November 2025, voters in Sabah turned out to elect representatives for the state legislative assembly. When the dust settled, the outcome delivered a clear message: local Sabah-based parties dominated, not peninsular coalitions.
The official results show that Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) emerged as the largest bloc with 29 seats. Their nearest rival, Parti Warisan Sabah (Warisan), secured 25 seats. Smaller local parties and independents claimed the remaining seats. Major peninsular-based coalitions such as Pakatan Harapan (PH), Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) were nearly wiped out.
At the heart of this electoral shift lies a growing sense of state identity and frustration among Sabahans. For decades, Sabah, which is rich in natural resources, especially oil and gas, has seen comparatively little benefit at the grassroots level. Many Sabahans feel short-changed under the federal arrangements enshrined in the Federation’s founding pact.
One of the most consequential recent developments was a court ruling affirming Sabah’s entitlement to a larger share of revenue generated from its resources. The decision rekindled long-standing grievances and heightened expectations.
By voting decisively for local parties, many Sabahans signalled that they wanted governance and representation rooted in local realities, not distant party politics shaped by peninsular interests. Analysts argue the result reflects a crystallising “Sabah for Sabahans” sentiment that echoes earlier political shifts in neighbouring states.
For Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and the federal government, the election results represent a serious wake-up call. In political terms, the performance of PH and its allies was dismal as PH won only a single seat.
But beyond the electoral disappointment, the verdict speaks to a deeper structural challenge: the centralised model of governance and revenue distribution may not be tenable anymore. Sabah’s voters have shown they demand fairer revenue sharing, genuine autonomy, and local leadership that understands their history of economic marginalisation.
Anwar has attempted to respond, where he publicly recognised Sabah’s 40% revenue-sharing entitlement and affirmed federal commitment to honour it. Yet with the diminished presence of peninsular parties in the new state assembly, the federal government may find its leverage weakened. Negotiations over revenue, development allocations, and MA63 (the original agreement underpinning Sabah’s entry into Malaysia) obligations will likely be more complex, especially with a more independent and assertive Sabah leadership.
The Sabah election result is not an isolated local phenomenon. It signals a broader rebalancing of political power within Malaysia, one where Sabah (and potentially Sarawak) reclaim greater agency in deciding their own future. The appeal of localism and state-based politics seems to be growing stronger, especially when federal policies are perceived as neglectful or inequitable.
If the federal government fails to translate promises into tangible policies by improved infrastructure, revenue sharing, and more autonomy, Sabah’s growing assertiveness may fuel demands for deeper structural reforms. This could include reexamining how representation, resources, and governance are arranged between the peninsula and the Borneo states.
Aiman is a PhD candidate in Security and Strategic Analysis at the National University of Malaysia. His research focuses on Malaysia’s space policy, ASEAN regional security, and the strategic implications of emerging technologies. His work explores how Malaysia’s defense policy and strategic culture shape its approach to outer space.
Brunei Darussalam 🇧🇳
Could This Be a Game-Changer?
by Syimah Johari, in Bandar Seri Begawan
Brunei Darussalam has recently launched its very own ‘first-aiders on wheels’ initiative under the Brunei Red Crescent Society (BRCS). This initiative is expected to enhance accessibility and delivery of first aid across public spaces, ultimately strengthening community safety. Inspired by globally recognised models and their effectiveness, the ‘first-aiders on wheels’ programme leverages trained volunteers to provide rapid, practical emergency support adapted to local needs.
This concept, however, is not new. Similar teams are often known as bike paramedics or cycle responders. Their purpose is to deliver first aid quickly in areas that are difficult to access. For instance, in the East of England, e-bike responders are used to reach emergencies in hilly or challenging terrain. In Singapore, the country’s first-aiders on wheels patrol public parks on weekdays and during public holidays.
Brunei’s initiative follows a familiar approach, with volunteers deployed around Bandar Seri Begawan during Bandar Ku Ceria (BKC), the weekly car-free programme held every Sunday. The model is especially practical in this context, as the road closures and steady flow of pedestrians during BKC create an environment where these first-aiders can move faster than traditional vehicles.
Beyond BKC, this initiative holds a broader promise for Brunei. With one of the highest car ownership rates in Southeast Asia, navigating traffic—even outside the city centre—can be challenging. The responders can move efficiently across compact urban areas, providing timely assistance while also giving volunteers practical experience and strengthening community involvement.
While the initiative currently relies on trained volunteers, it is important to note that the BRCS is not classified as a typical non-governmental organisation. Instead, it holds a special role under the Constitution of Brunei Darussalam, giving it a unique standing and strong government support. Even so, voluntary commitment can fluctuate over time, which may affect the programme’s long-term effectiveness. To address this, the government and the BRCS could explore incentives, additional training, or potential integration with formal emergency services such as Raja Isteri Pengiran Anak Saleha (RIPAS) Hospital and Jerudong Park Medical Centre (JPMC), two of Brunei’s leading medical facilities. Similar volunteer-based programmes abroad like Community First Responders in the UK, for example, have faced challenges around maintaining volunteer availability. These challenges are often addressed through support, recognition, and stronger links with professional systems—lessons that could guide Brunei as it looks to expand the first-aiders on wheels initiative. It will be exciting to see how this recently launched initiative develops, and how Brunei’s first-aiders on wheels continue to make an impact.
Syimah is a graduate of King’s College London with a BA in International Relations. With a strong focus on diplomacy, regional cooperation, and development policy, she is passionate about contributing to meaningful change through public service. Currently, she is involved in poverty alleviation work through a local NGO.
Editorial Deadline 30/11/2025 11:59 PM (UTC +8)
