Systems Blinking Red
Issue 42 — Key Developments Across the Philippines, Singapore, and Vietnam
Editor’s Note
by Karen Ysabelle R. David, Lead Editor - Pacific Corridor Desk
This week, we see warning signs and systemic issues with ticking deadlines across the countries of the Pacific Corridor. In Singapore: a looming baby crisis, as the city-state’s total fertility rate plunges to a record low. Despite the government’s best efforts, in a city-state notorious for its high cost of living and fast-paced environment, reversing the trend is set to be an uphill battle.
In the Philippines, the global oil crisis has led to the declaration of a national energy emergency. In a country heavily dependent on imported oil, the crisis has exposed exactly how precarious its situation is, with fears of shortages and price spikes spreading like wildfire through the general populace.
And in Vietnam, the recent National Assembly and People’s Council elections have brought to light the state’s suppression of dissent. With Tô Lâm widely expected to be elected President, there may be no better time than the present to question and push back against the country’s one-party system.
Singapore 🇸🇬
Why are Singaporeans Having Fewer Babies?
by Jennifer Hui En Tan, in Singapore
On 26 February 2026, during Singapore’s 2026 annual budget debate, Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong raised his concern with Singapore’s total fertility rate (TFR) hitting a record low of 0.87 in 2025. To fight the low birth rate, the government expects to take in between 25,000 to 30,000 new citizens a year over the next five years. Since then, the topic of conversation has been one of the hottest topics in Singapore’s social media scene. So, why are Singaporeans having fewer babies?
Despite Singapore’s incentives for larger families by increasing paid parental leave, child care subsidies, and large family schemes, these fail to tackle the systematic and structural issue behind the country’s falling birth rate. While public sentiment among Singaporeans on social media forums highlights the cost of living, housing, and time as the key deterrent, Singapore’s situation is part of a broader global decline in TFRs. For many citizens, cost remains the most pressing concern, as Singapore is widely regarded as one of the world’s most expensive cities, and housing adds to that pressure. Approximately 77% of Singaporeans live in public housing, and for many young couples, the most realistic route would be to apply for BTO (Build to Order) houses, which come with a typical waiting period of around two to four years, if not longer. Newer BTO flats are frequently criticized for their shrinking sizes, which many feel are not conducive to raising more than one or two children. Time and work cultures further exacerbate the problem. Singapore’s high-pressure work and fast-paced environment leads to many opting out from having children due to the lack of time and flexibility to be meaningfully present in their children’s lives.
A declining fertility rate is not unique to Singapore; rather, it has been an ongoing global issue shaped by broader cultural and mindset shifts. Even with Singapore’s efforts so far, the fact is that children require significant parental time and emotional presence, something that institutional childcare alone is unable to provide. Globally, the TFR has been declining as a result of a combination of socioeconomic, cultural, and technological transformation, which has reshaped family structures and reproductive behavior. As countries develop and the socioeconomic situation gets better overall, higher levels of education lead to greater labor force participation, delayed marriages, and postponed childbearing.
The global decline in TFR has significant implications for ASEAN, as many member states are already experiencing demographic pressure similar to advanced economies. Countries such as Thailand and Malaysia have seen their TFRs fall to 1.22 and 1.55, respectively. Though the TFR rates are not as severe as Singapore, it signals a demographic shift which threatens to reshape the region’s economic landscape.
Singapore’s record low fertility rate ultimately reflects not just local challenges but a broader global demographic shift driven by structural, economic, and cultural changes. While government incentives help, they cannot reverse deeper societal trends such as rising costs, delayed marriages, and shifting lifestyle priorities. As neighboring ASEAN states face similar patterns, the region must prepare for the long-term implications on labor, growth, and social stability. Addressing the fertility crisis will require not only policy adjustments, but also a fundamental rethinking of how societies support families and redefine the balance between work, life, and parenthood.
Jennifer is a final-year International Relations student at the Singapore Institute of Management, where she focuses on political engagement, diplomacy, and community governance. She is an active volunteer in her constituency, working closely with residents to understand local concerns, facilitate dialogue, and support community initiatives.
The Philippines 🇵🇭
State of Emergency and Its Wider Meaning
by Glenn Vincent N. Boquilon, in Angeles City
On Tuesday evening, 24 March 2026, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared a state of national energy emergency, the first country in the world to do so. Beyond a domestic policy move, this can be viewed as a response to the growing crisis outside the Philippines. Tensions between the United States and Iran in the Middle East are beginning to affect countries that rely on imported energy. Additionally, oil companies in the Philippines have implemented a double-digit increase in fuel prices, pushing them to record highs. The government’s decision reflects concerns over fuel supply, rising prices, and the wider impact of global instability.
The Philippines depends heavily on imported oil. When conflict disrupts supply routes or pushes prices higher, the country becomes vulnerable. If left misgoverned, crippling effects can trickle down to various industries and communities. Recent developments in the Middle East have raised fears of shortages and price spikes, pushing the government to act quickly. By declaring a national energy emergency, authorities can respond faster and manage resources more closely.
In this case, the state of emergency allows the government to secure fuel supplies, monitor distribution, and prevent hoarding or price manipulation. Officials have also set up a crisis committee to track the situation and make sure basic needs such as fuel, food, and medicine remain available.
The effects of the Middle East conflict go beyond fuel prices. Geopolitical dynamics like this show how quickly global tensions can shape local decisions. For countries like the Philippines and many across the world, even distant conflicts can create real risks. In this regard, this makes early action and contingency plans important within bodies of government. The declaration of a state of emergency is not just reacting to external circumstances, but preparing for internal challenges that could potentially get worse.
This approach is not unique during times of crisis. In the last couple of years, several countries in Asia have used emergency powers in response to global or external pressures. During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments introduced emergency measures to control the spread of the virus and keep systems running. In other cases, states used similar powers to respond to economic shocks or regional tensions. Each situation is different, but the need for quick action is the same.
Across Southeast Asia, this creates a shared challenge. Governments must respond quickly, but they must also avoid overusing their authority. While emergency powers can help manage crises, they also need to be presented with clear limitations. In any nation, accountability is important to maintain public trust. For observers, this moment highlights how connected the world has become. Consequently, a conflict in one region can affect energy, prices, and policy in another. Governments now have to prepare for risks that come from beyond their borders. In this regard, emergency measures are becoming tools for both response and prevention.
As tensions continue in the Middle East, attention will also remain on how these emergency powers are used in the Philippines. People will watch how long they stay in place and the initiatives that emerge from it. A balance must be found between national security measures and the extended reach of power. In the end, the real test is not just how governments respond to a crisis, but how they return to normal once it passes. In an uncertain and changing global environment, governments must ensure that power is properly regulated, proportionate, and exercised in accordance with the rule of law.
Glenn holds a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science from the University of Santo Tomas. His experience spans governance programs, policy development, and political research, having worked with the Ateneo School of Government and WR Numero Research on projects focused on electoral reform, public opinion, and regional development. He also helped coordinate the drafting of the Bangsamoro Local Government Code and supported the Academy of Multiparty Democracy.
Vietnam 🇻🇳
Vietnam Cracks Down on Dissent Amid National Elections
by Sean Huy Vu
On 15 March, over 78 million people in Vietnam voted for candidates to the People’s Committees and National Assembly, an event that happens only once every five years. According to Vietnam Today, 68.6% of the candidates for the National Assembly (612 individuals) are running for the first time, 21.8% (188 candidates) are from ethnic minorities, and 45.4% (392 candidates) are women. Across 34 provinces, voters choose members for a total of 2,554 municipal or provincial seats, and 72,613 commune or ward seats.
A week later, the election results for the National Assembly were revealed, with Lê Minh Hưng winning 99.87% of the vote — higher than any delegate — and Tô Lâm receiving 98.66%. While Lê, a member of the Vietnamese Communist Party’s Central Committee, is speculated by the public and experts to become the next prime minister, Tô is anticipated to be elected president by the forthcoming National Assembly.
The integrity of the elections, however, have been called into question by observers. Although Vietnamese citizens are not legally required to participate in elections, the Party — through its various civil society groups and institutions — strongly encourages voting as a civil obligation. As a Marxist-Leninist state, the Communist Party is the sole legal political party in the country, and although candidates are permitted to run as independents, forming opposition parties is strictly illegal and can invoke grave consequences.
The independence of the national legislature has appeared increasingly dubious to experts. In the past year alone, a record number of Party Central Committee resolutions were institutionalized into law by the National Assembly, with little time for examination or debate around policies. This has led Duke University Political Science Professor Edmund Malesky to conclude, “The separation [of powers] between the executive and the legislature, like in other countries, is not clear [in Vietnam].”
In its pursuit of regime survival, the Vietnamese Party-State has suppressed dissent during the election season. Just two days before the national elections, independent journalist and blogger Lê Anh Hưng was arrested in Hanoi for “making, storing, disseminating or propagating information, documents, and items against the state.” Several individuals have also been fined between US$285 and US$570 for allegedly spreading “off-topic and untrue” information about the elections. In none of these cases did authorities provide specific details regarding the cause for their arrests or penalties. Lê, however, has been imprisoned before for his analysis and outspoken criticism of corruption in Vietnam, garnering himself popularity on social media.
Despite Vietnam’s growing and more empowered middle class, there is little to no opposition to the one-party system. Without critical feedback, the country will face more delays in achieving its development goals, and given the increasing centralization of power under Tô Lâm, political freedoms are unlikely to expand in the near future.
Sean is a scholar of East Asian history, culture, and international relations, with current research at Georgetown University examining working-class labor and human trafficking in the region. His broader interests include the social psychology of religion and identity politics. Sean previously taught modern Korean history at the University of California, Irvine, where he completed his B.A. in History, and later taught English in Ho Chi Minh City while studying Vietnamese language and culture. His writing has been published by UC Irvine, Johns Hopkins University, and Foreign Analysis.
Editorial Deadline 31/03/2026 11:59 PM (UTC +8)
