The Maritime Crescent

Issue 2

Jun 18, 2025

by Nabil Haskanbancha, in Bangkok

In this issue, the Frontier Brief explores how countries of the Maritime Crescent navigate identity, internal governance and external influence in an era of uncertain futures. In Brunei, renewed efforts to preserve the Malay language highlight the importance of promoting cultural roots in an ethically diverse region like ASEAN. Meanwhile, Indonesia adopts a “guns as butter” approach, blending military power with domestic development as a strategy to build resilience amid geopolitical uncertainties. The Polish president’s visit to Malaysia reflects another milestone in ASEAN-EU relations, with discussion centered on trade and security cooperation.

Indonesia 🇮🇩

The Prabowo Doctrine: Guns as Butter

by Hree Putri Samudra, in Jakarta

To be in Jakarta today is to live with a jarring contradiction. While street-level anxiety simmers over rising rice prices and a shocking World Bank report on mass vulnerability, the state remains focused on its swelling US$25 billion defense budget and the tense geopolitics of this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue.

The immediate reaction is to dismiss this as a classic example of a “guns versus butter” approach. But this view is a fundamental misreading of the strategy taking shape. We are not witnessing a choice, but a radical fusion. This is the emerging Prabowo Doctrine, a uniquely Indonesian answer to a 21st-century problem. Think of it as a "guns as butter" strategy.

This isn't a simple return to the New Order’s political control. This doctrine is about brute-force execution, a strategy born from a cold surrender to the reality of a civil service so paralyzed by corruption that even a recent, much-touted 'improvement' in its Corruption Perception Index score only brings it to a pathetic score of 37, leaving Indonesia far behind countries like Malaysia (57) and Timor-Leste (73), a performance described by Transparency International itself as part of a regional failure by leaders to stop corruption. The pragmatic calculation is simple: only the Indonesian National Armed Forces (TNI) has the logistical footprint and command structure to get it done.

The evidence is clear in the President’s signature free meal program, a massive US$4.5 billion-a-year undertaking whose logistical nightmare requires a military solution. The plan leans heavily on the military’s territorial command, a playbook mirroring its role in kickstarting national food estates, right down to the local Babinsa’s notebook. While other nations use their military for infrastructure, the Indonesian model is unique, integrating it directly into the machinery of social welfare.

The strategic prize is immense, and in the brutal theatre of the US-China rivalry, perhaps non-negotiable. It promises a resilient nation, immune to internal shocks, that can finally negotiate with world powers from a position of strength, not desperation. For ASEAN, this would transform its largest member from a state of instability into a powerful, self-reliant anchor, leading not just with warships, but with a proven model of state capacity that its neighbors, also caught in the same geopolitical vise, can only envy.

But make no mistake, this is a Faustian bargain. The ghost of Dwifungsi looms, risking an erosion of democratic oversight. What happens when a businessman must negotiate permits not with the mayor, but with the local military command? It's a slow creep back to a past many fought to leave behind, with massive budgets opening new channels for corruption.

This is the most audacious gamble in modern Indonesian history. For the 194 million on that fragile edge, this is not a theoretical debate. Their fate, and the price of rice, now hinges entirely on this doctrine's outcome. The world is right to watch; its success could forge a superpower, but its failure could unravel the nation from within.

Hree serves as Project Associate for Asia and the Pacific at the Global Network of Women Peacebuilders (GNWP), where she leads multi-country initiatives integrating Women, Peace and Security (WPS), and Youth, Peace and Security (YPS) frameworks into security policies across ASEAN and South Asia. She is also a Non-Resident Fellow at the University of Glasgow’s Atomic Anxiety in the New Nuclear Age program. Previously, she served as Chair of the Humanitarian Disarmament and Inclusive Governance Working Group at the British American Security Information Council (BASIC), advocating for more accountable and inclusive nuclear policy frameworks.

Brunei Darussalam 🇧🇳

Speaking Soft Power: How Malay Builds Cultural Bridges

by Syimah Johari, in Bandar Seri Begawan

Language is more than just a way to communicate, it’s a reflection of our identities. Every country has its own language rich in heritage, history and meaning.

In recent months, Brunei has seen notable efforts that highlight the importance of Malay, particularly among the youth and the general public. These developments reflect a growing recognition that language is a cultural pillar and also a soft power tool. The ways through which Brunei aims to sustain Malay as its official language, and also to extend its global presence, are very much worth examining.

From June 2^nd to the 5^th, Raja Istri Girls High School wrapped up Language Week with a speech by the principal, emphasising the significance of embracing Malay and its role in shaping national identity. Just weeks earlier, in May of 2025, this same message was conveyed during the preliminary meeting for the 2nd Majlis Bahasa Brunei Darussalam-Indonesia-Malaysia (MABBIM) Heads Forum, delivered by the Acting Deputy Director of the Language and Literature Bureau, who also serves as the Secretary of MABBIM Brunei Darussalam.

These developments have demonstrated Brunei’s commitment to maintaining Malay at the heart of its national identity. The language is also deeply integrated into Brunei’s national philosophy, Melayu Islam Beraja (MIB), and in governance, where Malay is used in ministerial speeches and official government meetings, then translated into English for public distribution. Malay is also seen on street signs and storefronts. The language used in such a formal context is Standard Malay, while Brunei Malay is spoken among locals. While Standard Malay shares roots with the Malaccan dialect and varieties used in Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia, Brunei Malay is unique to the country. However, a 2023 study highlighted a decline in Brunei Malay usage among youth, likely influenced by exposure to social media and other languages. Since Brunei Malay holds deep cultural value, this shift raises concerns about engaging younger generations in sustaining their linguistic heritage.

Brunei’s dedication to preserving Malay is not just to safeguard national identity. It also contributes to regional unity within ASEAN. As a language shared across several member states, Malay acts as a cultural bridge, building mutual understanding and shared values. For example, tourism pamphlets in Brunei are in Malay, English and other languages to welcome visitors from all over the world. In a place as diverse as ASEAN, these efforts remind us that preserving culture goes hand-in-hand with creating stronger diplomatic ties between countries based on shared heritage and history.

In the end, language serves a bigger role than simply as a tool for communication. It is about who we are and what we pass on to the next generation. The commitment to preserve the Malay language is not only about tradition; it’s about reinforcing identity. As the world becomes more interconnected, holding on to our linguistic roots helps us stay grounded with our identity, while opening doors to understanding others.

Syimah is a graduate of King’s College London with a BA in International Relations. With a strong focus on diplomacy, regional cooperation, and development policy, she is passionate about contributing to meaningful change through public service. Currently, she is involved in poverty alleviation work through a local NGO.

Malaysia 🇲🇾

Charting New Horizons: Polish President’s Visit Reignites Potential ASEAN-EU Partnerships

by Edrina Lisa Ozaidi, in WP Kuala Lumpur

The recent official visit of Polish President Andrzej Duda to Malaysia reignites hope for a deeper, more strategic partnership between ASEAN and the European Union (EU). The Polish president’s meeting with the Malaysian Prime Minister was particularly significant as it aligns with Malaysia’s current Chairmanship of ASEAN and Poland’s Presidency of the Council of the European Union, which reflects a convergence of leadership priorities for intensifying regional cooperation.

Bilateral trade between Malaysia and Poland recorded a notable 19.5% increase to RM5.66 billion in 2024, affirming their mutual desire for expansion, according to Trade World News. The meeting of the Polish President and Malaysian Prime Minister has helped underline priority sectors, including agri-food, digital transformation, and the green transition, particularly the hydrogen economy and renewable energy. To put the cherry on top, Malaysia received an invitation to participate in a future summit under the Three Seas Initiative. This not only enhances economic dialogue and connectivity among countries between the Adriatic, Baltic, and Black Seas, but the platform also offers new trade routes and infrastructure development in Central and Eastern Europe. This could unlock fresh avenues for investment and market access for ASEAN businesses.

Both national leaders expressed strong support for the swift advancement of the Malaysia-EU Free Trade Agreement (MEUFTA) negotiations, which signals a push for more liberal and robust trade flows.

Beyond economic ties, the two national leaders also shared a vision for global governance and security. Both leaders underscored the significance of safeguarding multilateralism and enhancing collective security. According to Bernama, President Duda notably highlighted how medium-sized nations like Poland and Malaysia can play a significant role in shaping a more equitable global order. Discussion also includes cooperation against organised crime and strengthening defence ties, reflecting a shared commitment to regional and international stability. To solidify Poland’s commitment to the region, its application to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) in Southeast Asia was welcomed by ASEAN, showcasing ASEAN’s openness to deepen engagement with the EU.

This visit suggests a strong and positive trajectory in diplomatic and economic relations. The Malaysia-Poland connection, underpinned by mutual interests and complementary leadership roles, is poised to serve as a compelling blueprint for how ASEAN and the EU can collectively navigate global complexities and unlock new avenues for prosperity.

Edrina is a communications professional with a background in international relations. She holds a degree from the University of Nottingham Malaysia and has worked across public relations and social media for organizations in the development, education, and corporate sectors. Her work focuses on crafting narratives around regional affairs and strengthening media engagement across Southeast Asia.

Editorial Deadline 15/06/2025 11:59 PM (UTC +8)