Editor’s Note
by Nabil Haskanbancha, in Bangkok
Welcome everyone! It is an honor and a pleasure to introduce you to TAF’s first Frontier Brief! Through curated weekly insights, we aim to inform our readers of the most relevant and important developments in Southeast Asia. Our correspondents, based across the region, are experts in local developments that showcase the region’s potential for growth amid evolving geopolitical shifts. ASEAN is on the rise, and so are we. Our dynamic and young TAF’s on-the-ground team is ready to share its stories with the world.
For the newsletter below, we get a glimpse into some of the most significant developments following the 46th ASEAN Summit. Chandara Samban tracks border disputes between Thailand and Cambodia; as the military build-up continues, Samban examines the limits of bilateral mechanisms and ASEAN’s commitment to regional cohesion. Chammie Lo in Vientiane explores the landmark Laos-Malaysia agreement establishing a multimodal trade corridor linking China to Malaysia’s west coast. Lo considers how infrastructure ambitions intersect with long-standing development challenges. Following Myanmar’s March 2025 earthquake, May explores how different factors, such as climate risks and infrastructure damage, pose hurdles for recovery efforts and aid delivery. Nattamon Aumphin unpacks how Chinese investment in Thailand has surged in recent years, prompting discussions about favourable regulatory mechanisms toward foreign businesses.
Cambodia 🇰🇭
Border Tensions Flare: Could the 2025 Cambodia-Thailand Dispute Challenge ASEAN Unity?
by Chandara Samban, in Kandal
On May 28, 2025, tensions reignited along the Cambodia-Thailand border after a deadly gun exchange near the disputed Mom Tei area or “Emerald Triangle” between Cambodia’s Preah Vihear and Thailand’s Ubon Ratchathani provinces. A Cambodian soldier, Suon Raun, was killed during a 10-minute firefight. Both sides quickly mobilized troops, raising fears of wider conflict.
The incident triggered strong national sentiments in both countries. Cambodia’s Ministry of National Defense accused Thai forces of launching a deliberate ambush inside Cambodian territory. In response, Thailand’s Defense Minister Phumtham Wechayachai claimed Cambodia had previously encroached into Thai territory, prompting a defensive operation.
Despite escalating rhetoric, both governments quickly stepped in. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet and Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra held urgent talks, urging restraint and promoting peaceful dialogue. Military commanders from both countries met the next day, agreeing to pursue negotiations through established mechanisms such as the Joint Boundary Committee (JBC) and the 2000 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).
Tensions Persist Despite Diplomacy
While both sides released similarly worded statements pledging calm and continued use of bilateral mechanisms, differences emerged. Cambodia rejected Thailand’s claim that both countries agreed to withdraw troops from the conflict area. Cambodian officials insisted their forces would remain on-site, asserting it as their rightful territory per the 2000 MoU.
Both militaries have since bolstered their border presence. Cambodia deployed heavy weapons and reinforcements, while Thailand mobilized their troops to its eastern frontier.
ASEAN Unity in Question?
Though the dispute is rooted in a long history, most notably the 1962 International Court of Justice ruling on the Preah Vihear Temple, some observers worry that the renewed flare-up could strain ASEAN’s central pillar of unity.
Chandara is a freelance journalist with a focus on foreign affairs, security issues, and ASEAN affairs. He also serves as a Junior Counterterrorism Intelligence Analyst.
Lao PDR 🇱🇦
Laos and Malaysia Forge Multimodal Trade Corridor, Deepening ASEAN Connectivity
by Chammie Lo, in Vientiane
On May 25, 2025, Laos and Malaysia signed a Memorandum of Cooperation (MoC) between Penang Port Sdn Bhd and Thanaleng Dry Port Co. Ltd., witnessed by the Prime Ministers of both countries. The agreement establishes a multimodal trade corridor connecting the Laos-China Railway to Malaysia’s western seaboard via Penang Port. The partnership aims to reduce transit times, lower transportation costs, and enhance coordination through system integration, operational knowledge sharing, and short-term personnel exchanges.
Historically disadvantaged by its landlocked geography, Laos has lagged behind other ASEAN states in industrialization and access to global markets. But with the operationalization of Laos-China railway in 2022, the country has actively repositioned itself as a “land-linked” hub, serving as a trade gateway between Southeast Asia and China. The railway has spurred growth in agriculture and tourism, which are key drivers of Laos' economy. However, the transformation has raised concerns over rising debt levels and China’s expanding strategic footprint in Laos and the broader Mekong region.
This new Laos-Malaysia strategic partnership is beyond bilateral cooperation but a demonstration of ASEAN's strong commitment of building a resilient, people-centered, and interconnected community. This corridor aligns with the broader Pan-Asia Railway Network, forming a continuous logistics route from southern China through Laos and Thailand to the Malaysian west coast. At Thanaleng Dry Port, the standard-gauge Laos-China railway operates alongside the one-meter-gauge Laos-Thailand rail, enabling seamless cargo transfer.
More broadly, this collaboration reflects a growing regional momentum, echoing with projects such as the East-West Economic Corridor and Thailand–Laos high-speed rail. These efforts show ASEAN’s potential to strengthen regional economic resilience through cross-border infrastructure development.
As Laos prepares to transition out of Least Developed Country (LDC) status by 2026, logistics is emerging as a strategic driver of its socio-economic development. Improved connectivity can help diversify the economy, create jobs in transport and trade services, and embed local businesses into the regional value chains.
However, persistent structural challenges remain. Around two-thirds of the country's population still relies on agriculture, and poor secondary road infrastructure further restricts market access for small producers. To achieve sustainable inclusive prosperity, investing in rural connectivity, workforce development for priority sectors and a stronger support system for micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises remain critical.
Chammie is a development professional working on sustainable finance and inclusive livelihoods in Laos. She holds a degree in Politics and Law from the University of Hong Kong and has contributed research insights to academic and community spaces on heat governance, climate migration, and emission transparency.
Myanmar 🇲🇲
International Humanitarian Aid Led by the European Union, ASEAN, and NGOs Provides Support to Myanmar's Post-Earthquake Development and Recovery
Despite the international support, the recovery process remains slow due to operational limitations, damaged infrastructure, and climate conditions.
by May
Two months ago, Myanmar experienced a devastating 7.7 magnitude earthquake on March 28th. Many lost their loved ones, homes, culture, and history in a single day. In response to this tragedy, humanitarian aid from around the world has been mobilized in various ways to provide assistance, supporting Myanmar’s recovery amid a pre-existing humanitarian crisis that has been further exacerbated by the recent natural disaster.
The European Union (EU) provided €46 million in donations in 2025, primarily focused on distributing food and nutrition, medical supplies, sanitation, shelter, protection, social services, family tracing and reunification, and education in support of disaster response. All relief packages are considered crucial at this moment to support people in need and to address upcoming challenges.
International NGOs work closely with local organizations to ensure that financial aid and supplies are distributed directly to people in rural areas. However, there are operational barriers due to poor infrastructure, restricted internet connections and communication, and a lack of electricity, which limit water access, hinder accessibility, and reduce efficiency.
Meanwhile, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) still remains a key international platform for Myanmar’s recovery. During the 2025 ASEAN Summit, leaders addressed Myanmar’s political situation and reaffirmed the Five-Point Consensus, which calls for a peaceful and secure resolution to the conflict in Myanmar. They also emphasized the importance of strengthening collaboration among ASEAN, external partners, Myanmar’s neighboring countries, and the UN– all the aforementioned stakeholders can help address other ongoing challenges, such as transnational crimes, including drugs, human trafficking, and internet fraud. Additionally, Australia actively supports the ASEAN frameworks to help achieve Myanmar’s long-term development program for recovery and reconstruction.
On the other hand, people on the ground have reported slow progress in humanitarian relief efforts due to multiple restrictions and climate-related issues. The earthquake occurred right before the start of the monsoon season, leaving many without shelter and compounding the challenges faced by humanitarian efforts. Additionally, the natural disaster and political situation have damaged vital infrastructure, including hospitals, roads, bridges, and airports. For example, Mandalay Airport’s control tower collapsed, making it difficult to receive international aid. Due to the scarcity of equipment, the team of volunteers and locals had to dig with their bare hands to rescue survivors during the earthquake disaster. Additionally, the lack of freshwater and sanitation could have further implications for the spread of infectious diseases in the future. After the earthquake, survivors face additional challenges, including excessive heat and anticipated flooding from the upcoming monsoon season. Such challenges could complicate future support efforts in Myanmar.
Times have been difficult for Myanmar citizens, as it is a country prone to natural disasters, and ongoing political conflicts have caused significant challenges. However, despite these hardships, international support has provided significant assistance for a better future.
May has previously worked in the editorial department at a media group in Myanmar, covering tourism, start-ups, and curated content. She also has experience in film and photography, and engages with people-centered stories through her travels and creative work.
Thailand 🇹🇭
The Influx of Chinese Investment and Trade: Government Regulations Enable a Suitable Environment for Foreign Business Penetration
by Natamon Aumphin, in Bangkok
Amid the US-China rivalry, the trade war since 2018 poses risks for local Thai businesses. As the US increases tariffs to decrease Chinese imports into the country and its allies, Chinese goods and investment have been redirected to Southeast Asian nations. Rather than the traditional US and EU markets, China repositioned Southeast Asia as its next strategic arena for export and production. Thailand is one of the targeted destinations. From 2018 onwards, there has been a surge in China’s exports to Thailand, reaching US$ 75.73 billion in 2023. Particularly, in 2022, exports reached US$78.5 billion, almost double the amount of 2018. Additionally, Chinese investment has shown steady growth for more than 10 years with little fluctuation. In 2023, Chinese outbound investment to Thailand was around US$2,017.590 million, compared to just US$478.600 million in 2012. The skyrocketed figures were realized due to three major regulations that enable a smooth environment for foreign direct investment (FDI).
Firstly, tariff exemptions, particularly on raw materials and machinery, facilitate foreign businesses penetrating the Thai market more easily. In addition to relatively cheap, low-skilled labor available in Thailand, tariff exemptions grant foreigners reduced production costs if they manufacture in the country. Moreover, Chinese investment in Thai production sites aligns with “China’s Going Out Policy” as its top exports consist of electronic equipment, machinery, and raw materials. At the same time, this supports Thailand’s goal of increasing its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) through foreign direct investment.
Secondly, as the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) desires to boost economic incentives to attract foreign investment, it allows registered foreigners to have 100% ownership of companies in certain industries. Thai regulations have traditionally limited full ownership in most sectors. Hence, with the implementation of Foreign Business Licenses (FBL), registered foreign businesses are not legally required to have any local agents and partners to operate the business. With a cost of only THB 2 million to register the business, foreigners can fully direct business decisions without the involvement of Thai stakeholders.
Thirdly, the recent free visa scheme for Chinese citizens eases Chinese businesses’ ability to explore business opportunities in Thailand. Without visa restrictions, Chinese entrepreneurs can visit Thailand and conduct business as a tourist on a short-term trip. Besides enabling exploring prospective industries, the scheme also increases business networking opportunities and connections through formal and informal events, including trade fairs, expos, and seminars. Without a high barrier of entry into the Thai market, it enables the Chinese to establish their presence and reduce business costs.
The surge of Chinese business penetration through goods and production is viewed positively on a macro level by both countries. Nonetheless, on a micro level, the situation of Thai local businesses is worrisome. They lack proper support from the government and may struggle to adapt to the rapidly changing business environment resulting from the increasing presence of foreign businesses. Hence, it may leave them in a vulnerable position, where some Thai businesses struggle to adapt while others lose their competitive edge.
Natamon has served as a rapporteur at the Institute of Security and International Studies (ISIS Thailand). She has also worked as a research assistant on diplomatic issues in Southeast Asia. Her work focuses on how domestic politics shape foreign policy in the region. She holds a degree in international relations and has experience in policy analysis, event reporting, and regional research.
Editorial Deadline 03/06/2025 11:59 PM (UTC +8)
