The Physics of a Seesaw
Issue 37 — Key Developments Across Brunei, Indonesia, and Malaysia
Editor’s Note
by Haniva Sekar Deanty, Lead Editor - Maritime Crescent Desk
This week opens with Hree P. Samudra’s article on Jakarta’s participation in the Board of Peace and its simultaneous pursuit of a reciprocal trade agreement with Washington reflect a delicate balancing act between strategic alignment and domestic legitimacy.
This week, Brunei also celebrates its 42nd National Day, with Syimah Johari reflecting on how the meaning of unity has evolved from political consolidation in 1984 to a contemporary framework tied to continuity, stability and the ambitions of Brunei Vision 2035.
This week, Edrina Lisa also looks at the discussion of Malaysia’s recent decision to open primary school registration to six-year-olds, a policy shift that has prompted wide public conversation, outlining the government’s rationale and the concerns raised by the public.
Indonesia 🇮🇩
BoP, Gaza, and the New Golden Age
by Hree Putri Samudra, in Jakarta
When Washington and Jakarta describe the same week in February, they are not telling the same story. In Washington, the focus is a reciprocal trade agreement that, in the words of the White House, “ushers in a NEW GOLDEN AGE of the ever growing U.S. Indonesian Alliance,” presented as a boost to economic security. In Jakarta’s domestic narrative, the headline is the Board of Peace, sold as a pragmatic instrument to help Palestine and accompanied by repeated assurances that Indonesia will leave if the forum fails to benefit the Palestinian cause. Seen together, the trade deal and the Board of Peace are not separate episodes but a single experiment in realigning Indonesia closer to Washington while maintaining a fragile domestic legitimacy built on Palestine.
The Median social media survey matters because it captures the politically attentive audience that most actively polices government legitimacy. It surveyed 1,200 users between 10 and 14 February with follow-up verification. A majority oppose joining the Board of Peace, worry that it could weaken Indonesia’s defence on Palestine, and reject the one‑billion‑dollar fee, Yet 55.7 percent still trust the government to support Palestine from within the board, while 40.8 percent favour reconsideration rather than immediate withdrawal. Together, these findings describe a conditional mandate rather than a blank cheque.
In Robert Putnam’s terms, leaders play a two‑level game: they bargain with foreign counterparts while managing audience costs at home. Median’s numbers point to a specific kind of trust that looks more like identity‑based confidence than enthusiasm for any single policy, rooted in Indonesia’s constitutional rejection of colonialism, its repeated refusal to normalise relations with Israel absent Palestinian statehood, and a long record of pro‑Palestine diplomacy. That assumption functions as a trust discount. In the language of the audience‑costs literature, this creates room for Prabowo to stand next to Trump as an alliance partner without immediately triggering reputational punishment, so long as the visible script on Palestine remains intact.
This is where the trade deal and BoP reinforce each other. The “New Golden Age” agreement does more than cut tariffs; it narrows Jakarta’s room to openly disagree with Washington. The Council of Trade and Investment becomes a gatekeeper for disputes, steering frictions into bilateral asymmetry that favours the U.S., with attempts to use economic pressure over Gaza would be filtered through institutions designed to preserve trade stability, not defend Palestine. BoP then becomes the first arena in which that alliance discipline is tested on an issue where Indonesian identity points one way and American preferences point another. As elites and firms grow dependent on the deal’s benefits, the promise that Jakarta could simply leave BoP if it fails Palestine becomes harder to sustain.
Trust discounts can expire. Many already describejoining the BoP as a foreign-policy misstep, embracing alliance language that breaks decades of strategic ambiguity. Two trajectories are possible: deepening integration with U.S.-led supply chains, while the BoP delivers little benefit to the Palestinians. At that point, the government will discover that it has not only moved Indonesia closer to Washington. It has also spent down the moral capital on Palestine that once made such a move politically survivable.
Hree serves as Project Associate for Asia and the Pacific at the Global Network of Women Peacebuilders (GNWP), where she leads multi-country initiatives integrating Women, Peace and Security (WPS), and Youth, Peace and Security (YPS) frameworks into security policies across ASEAN and South Asia. She is also a Non-Resident Fellow at the University of Glasgow’s Atomic Anxiety in the New Nuclear Age program. Previously, she served as Chair of the Humanitarian Disarmament and Inclusive Governance Working Group at the British American Security Information Council (BASIC), advocating for more accountable and inclusive nuclear policy frameworks.
Brunei Darussalam 🇧🇳
Brunei’s 42nd National Day Marks Unity and Continuity
by Syimah Johari, in Bandar Seri Begawan
Brunei attained full independence on 1 January 1984, marking the conclusion of a long-standing protectorate arrangement with the British. The nation formally commemorated its independence on 23 February that same year. National Day in Brunei is therefore not only a remembrance of sovereignty, but an annual recalibration of national priorities.
Each year, a theme accompanies the celebration. More than a slogan, it reflects the priorities of a particular chapter in Brunei’s journey. This year’s slogan is Bersatu Mencapai Cita Negara, (in translation, United in Achieving The Nation’s Aspirations), aligning with the country’s long-term national goals and inviting reflection on the evolving meaning of unity.
Before independence, Brunei had been a British protectorate state from 1888, a period that included the disruption of Japanese occupation during the Second World War. While internal governance remained under the Sultanate, Britain oversaw defence and foreign affairs. The path to full sovereignty was formalised through the 1979 Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation, which set the framework for independence in 1984.
At that time, unity carried a clear political function. It signified the consolidation of sovereignty, the assumption of full control over defence and external relations, and the preservation of stability in the post-war decades. Unity was closely tied to the formation of a cohesive national identity as Brunei entered a new phase of self-governance.
Today, the idea of unity is situated differently. It is framed less around political consolidation, but rather through continuity – the shared responsibility to maintain stability and continuity, in line with the Brunei Vision 2035. Within the broader horizon of Brunei Vision 2035, which envisions a well-educated population, high quality of life, and a dynamic economy, unity can be understood as the shared commitment that underpins long-term aspirations. It is expressed not only in national celebration, but in everyday contribution: in education, civic responsibility, and intergenerational continuity.
As Brunei marks its 42nd National Day, the theme of unity serves as a reminder that while the challenges of 1984 and 2026 differ, the principle of shared direction remains constant. National Day, in this sense, is not only a commemoration of independence, but a reflection on how a nation continues to move forward together.
Syimah is a graduate of King’s College London with a BA in International Relations. With a strong focus on diplomacy, regional cooperation, and development policy, she is passionate about contributing to meaningful change through public service. Currently, she is involved in poverty alleviation work through a local NGO.
Malaysia 🇲🇾
The Pedagogical Debate over Malaysia’s Six-Year-Old Primary Entry
by Edrina Lisa Ozaidi, in WP Kuala Lumpur
Recently, the Malaysian Ministry of Education released a statement of the government’s decision to open primary school registration to six-years-olds, representing a big shift in the national uncertain education architecture. The policy targets to synchronise Malaysia with international norms, local academics and child development experts, but publics are questioning whether the nation’s six-years-olds are truly prepared for the rigours of Primary One.
Advocates for the earlier entry age defend that the biological “window of opportunity” for foundational literacy and numeracy is at its peak between the ages five and seven. Some argue that with a structured early exposure and supportive environment, the ministry aims to recalibrate the imbalance often seen in the transition from the unstructured and different models used in private preschool to formal primary education. Local analysts also suggest that the shift could improve the efficiency of the national human capital. Another point of defence states that by starting at six, the move allows students from all backgrounds to develop equally, providing other less fortunate opportunities to reduce the financial burden from having to pay for private preschool fees.
However, the policy has already met with significant pushback from local educators and received mixed reaction from the public. An analyst points out that the “ready for school” threshold is never universal. Critics argue that pushing young children into a desk-bound, assessment-heavy environment bears the risk of early education burnout.
The concern is not limited to age, but the nature of the Primary One curriculum. While Malaysia practices in-class assessment, which may or may not be limited to just academics, the syllabus remains heavily dependent on rote learning and extensive written work, alongside strong expectations to perform well in co-curricular activities. By doing so, the nation risks alienating children who have not yet developed the necessary fine motor skills or executive functions.
Analysts and locals are also pointing to the relative age effect. Under this policy, a child born in December starting at age six will be nearly a year younger than their January-born peers. At age 7, a 12-month gap represents roughly 14% of the child’s total life experience, which can denote a difference in brain development and impulse control. Additionally, experts expressed the sanctity of play-based learning, noting that six years old students’ learning should primarily be around play-based learning.
While the ministry maintains the early registration as flexible, the community insists that the burden of proof still relies on the school system. The public encourages Primary One’s educational framework to act as a bridge requiring various support rather than just a sprint year, ensuring that the education approach is holistic for young learners to benefit from the system.
Edrina is a communications professional with a background in international relations. She holds a degree from the University of Nottingham Malaysia and has worked across public relations and social media for organizations in the development, education, and corporate sectors. Her work focuses on crafting narratives around regional affairs and strengthening media engagement across Southeast Asia.
Editorial Deadline 21/02/2026 11:59 PM (UTC +8)
These news updates for each country are very informative, I really like them.