Thin Horizons, Narrow Paths
Issue 43 — Key Developments Across Brunei, Indonesia, and Malaysia
Editor’s Note
by Siu Tzyy Wei, Lead Editor - Maritime Crescent Desk
This week, the region finds itself walking down narrow paths - thin lines where choices, truths and vulnerabilities converge, where the weight of uncertainty becomes heavier to bear by the day.
In Indonesia, Hree P. Samudra turns to Lebanon, where conflict clouds the very act of knowing. The fog room of war becomes a space for distortion, raising questions about how humanitarian aid and nuclear governance can function when institutions built to preserve peace struggle to grasp the full picture.
In Malaysia, Edrina Lisa traces the government’s careful steps along the energy tightrope. While oil wealth cushions national revenue, subsidies strain the budget. The balancing act between fiscal responsibility and social protection reveals how volatility abroad is felt at home, forcing Kuala Lumpur to rethink the foundations of resilience.
Over in Brunei, Syimah Johari reflects on the fragile space between prosperity and precarity. In the quiet margins where households navigate vulnerability with little fanfare, socio-economic divides and resilience spreads their roots in silence - consequences that require immediate tending to.
From tightropes to contested truths and fragile divides, this week at the Maritime Crescent reminds us that the region’s story is traced in delicate crossings - where balance is tenuous, where clarity is elusive, and where the future is forged by the quiet endurance of walking narrow paths.
Indonesia 🇮🇩
What Lebanon Tells Us About the Limits of Knowing
by Hree Putri Samudra, in Jakarta
On 29th and 30th March 2026, three Indonesian peacekeepers serving with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) were killed in southern Lebanon - one by a projectile at a UNIFIL base, two more in a roadside blast. Indonesia condemned the attacks. Israel denied responsibility and blamed Hezbollah. The Security Council held an emergency session. But UNIFIL itself said something nobody wanted repeated: the origin of both explosions was unknown.
Rather than a temporary oversight, the current limitations of the system are arguably a matter of structural design. UNIFIL’s Board of Inquiry lacks subpoena power, operates without intelligence-sharing and defaults to confidentiality, seen in the aftermath of the 2016 Juba attacks. In an attempt to refrain from accusation, UNIFIL’s workflow is designed to deliberately maintain process, momentum and perhaps, even decorum. Yet, reality has moved beyond simple monitoring. After Iran’s Supreme Leader was assassinated on 28 February and March 2 strikes on Hezbollah, southern Lebanon became an active warzone. With 1,300 dead and 1.2 million displaced, the scale of the IDF operations makes attribution impossible. Attribution requires firing logs and surveillance, data controlled by belligerents. In the wider picture, such information gatekept only strengthens a deliberate epistemic wall by the day. Because the parties involved are the ones likely responsible, they have no incentive to share. UNIFIL now has 7,505 remaining peacekeepers, down from 10,500 last year, occupying 50 fixed, and publicised positions. The outcome is predictable patrol routes that endanger its workforce - a risk to tackle before UNIFIL’s mandate expires on 31 December 2026. However, with the IDF pushing for a buffer zone toward the Litani River and Hezbollah fight to stop it, UNIFIL’s is falling further behind from its capacity to serve when and where it matters most.
Indonesia contributes 755 personnel to UNIFIL and plans up to 5,000 troops to Gaza - a clear bid to be seen as a global security actor. But that bid rests on assumptions Lebanon has now exposed. Indonesia’s representative at the Security Council demanded a “direct UN investigation, not merely Israeli excuses.” That investigation would use the same Board of Inquiry whose structural limits have just been described. Indonesia is demanding answers from a system that cannot produce them.
This problem extends beyond peacekeeping. The 11th Review Conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) opens in New York on 27 April. The NPT relies on compliance verified through International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections. But the IAEA, like UNIFIL, operates on consent. In June 2025, after strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, the IAEA withdrew all inspectors from Iran. Three of the last four review conferences failed to reach consensus. The architecture of verification collapses at the moment it is needed most.
From southern Lebanon to nuclear governance, the pattern is identical. International institutions are asked to verify what the parties involved have every incentive to conceal. Indonesia should ask not only who killed its soldiers, but how peacekeepers can be protected in systems built to avoid accountability.
Hree is a Policy Fellow at the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network (APLN) where she leads research and policy interventions on Indo-Pacific nuclear security and AI governance. She previously served as a Research Fellow at the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) and has managed multi-country security portfolios across all 10 ASEAN member states. Her work examines the intersection of emerging technologies, strategic stability, and the evolution of regional security architectures. She specializes in institutional risk assessment and the application of open-source intelligence (OSINT) for strategic monitoring. Her current research focuses on how technological shifts such as AI and advanced verification tools reshape escalation dynamics and multilateral cooperation in a multipolar world.
Malaysia 🇲🇾
Walking the Energy Tightrope
by Edrina Lisa Ozaidi, in WP Kuala Lumpur
Malaysia is one of the few countries in the region that exports oil, but how is it faring amidst the global crisis?
As the global energy market faces oil-related turbulence driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, Malaysia finds itself alongside many other nations at the same crossroads of the energy crisis.
Malaysia’s position as an oil exporter has long been seen as a strength. However, the domestic fiscal burden of maintaining fuel subsidies has forced quite a shift in how it navigates the oil crisis of the mid 2020s.
The fiscal tightrope
High global crude prices are a double-edged sword. They may cushion national revenue through Petronas dividends and petroleum taxes, but they also simultaneously inflate the government subsidy bill.
Previously, Malaysia relied on blanket subsidies to shield consumers, but the Ministry of Finance has identified it as unsustainable on the federal budget for the long term.
To navigate this, the government has transitioned toward targeted subsidy rationalization, most notably through the Budi Madani initiative, which redirects aid to the bottom 40% (B40) and middle 40% (M40) income groups.
Furthermore, the government has also activated the Special Task Force on Energy and Subsidy Management, composed of experts from the financial ministry, economic ministry and the national bank, all working to sustain the nation’s target subsidy rationalisation goals.
Decoupling from the dollar and global shock
Another key part of Malaysia’s navigation strategy involves reducing ‘weaponised interdependence’ in energy trade. By promoting Regional Payment Connectivity, Bank Negara Malaysia is enabling the settlement of energy-related transactions in local currencies. This reduces the exchange rate shock that occurs when the US Dollar spikes alongside oil prices, providing a technical shield for the Ringgit and local businesses.
The Special Task Force has estimated that with the current “targeted” approach, Malaysia’s fiscal buffers are robust enough to sustain global oil prices at $100–$110 per barrel for at least the next 18 to 24 months without requiring a drastic cut to development spending.
This “runway” provides the government with the necessary breathing room to further diversify the economy before a potential long-term global energy shift.
The Transition as a Shield
Thirdly, Malaysia is also navigating the crisis by accelerating its National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR). Investment through hydrogen, carbon capture, and solar energy helps the state attempt to “future-proof” the economy against the inevitable volatility of fossil fuels.
This strategy treats the current oil crisis not just as a financial hurdle, but as a catalyst to solidify Malaysia’s position as a regional leader in green technology.
But is it enough?
Malaysia’s navigation of the current oil crisis is defined by a shift from passive protectionism to active structural reform.
Backed by a 24-month fiscal safety net and the oversight of a dedicated Task Force, Kuala Lumpur is ensuring that the nation remains resilient even as the global energy landscape remains fractured and unpredictable.
But to answer the question, only time will tell.
Edrina is a communications professional with a background in international relations. She holds a degree from the University of Nottingham Malaysia and has worked across public relations and social media for organizations in the development, education, and corporate sectors. Her work focuses on crafting narratives around regional affairs and strengthening media engagement across Southeast Asia.
Brunei Darussalam 🇧🇳
Walking in the Shadows of Prosperity
by Syimah Johari, in Bandar Seri Begawan
On the surface, Brunei is often associated with stability and comfort, need is not always immediately visible. As a country whose image is created based on its generous social welfare and abundance of oil and natural gas, it is easy to assume that the entire population lives with little to no socioeconomic constraints. As such, it is important to break such a facade - although it does not affect most of the population, poverty still exists. At the Legislative Council last year, those classified as poor by the government fall under relative rather than absolute poverty, meaning they are able to meet basic needs but may remain financially vulnerable. As a result, poverty in the sultanate remains a largely translucent issue - present but watered down, a social blind spot.
With a relatively decent image of the state of poverty retained, public awareness of the issue remains limited, even though need is not absent. This narrow perception overlooks a significant group within society: individuals and households who, while not classified as poor, continue to face socio-economic challenges. In line with the Zero Poverty 2035 target, the government has introduced subsidies and support programs to help maintain stability for households in need. However, what further narrows down the public understanding of who are considered “in need” is the eligibility criteria that determines the access to such programs.
Rather than a standardised poverty threshold, eligibility for social support in Brunei is determined using measures like the Minimum Cost of Basic Needs (KMKA), which reflects the typical household expenditure. Individuals who fall below this threshold are considered in need, and may receive assistance through programs like the Monthly Welfare Assistance (BKB), zakat (obligatory, annual religious charity in Islam), or other government, private sector and NGO initiatives.
Yet despite what seems like a whole-of-society effort to alleviate the socioeconomic challenges faced by many of these individuals and households, poverty is a deeper issue than what meets the eye. While NGOs like Society for Community Outreach and Training (SCOT) and Hand4HandBN provide essential support like donation drives and grassroot efforts at creating self-employment opportunities for its beneficiaries, significant gaps remain. These interventions often address immediate material needs, yet they struggle to reach underlying socioeconomic vulnerabilities - such as social stigma, limited upward mobility and rising living pressures - that persist beneath the surface.
Recognising such needs in its quieter forms is essential. Doing so allows for a more complete understanding of society and ensures that support is seen not merely as a welfare mechanism, but as part of a nuanced social landscape. By acknowledging the existence of households that live between stability and struggle, society can develop a deeper appreciation for the diversity of experiences that shape Brunei today.
Syimah is a graduate of King’s College London with a BA in International Relations. With a strong focus on diplomacy, regional cooperation, and development policy, she is passionate about contributing to meaningful change through public service. Currently, she is involved in poverty alleviation work through a local NGO.
Editorial Deadline 04/04/2026 11:59 PM (UTC +8)
