Editor’s Note
by Mattia Peroni, Lead Editor - Mekong Belt Desk
From natural disasters to man-made crises, this 8th issue of the Mekong Belt is all about unpacking the causes of instability across the region. In a special Cambodia–Thailand collaborative issue, we explore how the two neighbors are exchanging blame—and fire—in the most serious clashes in over a decade across a border still haunted by history. In Myanmar, forced abductions and child conscription reveal how human rights are quietly collapsing in the shadow of war. And in Laos, tropical storm Wipha collided with dam discharges, overwhelming local communities and exposing the vulnerabilities of current infrastructure. Whether triggered by storms, silence, or steel, these stories remind us that when governments fail to prepare or protect, it’s ordinary people who pay the price.
Special Coverage
Cambodia 🇰🇭 — Thailand 🇹🇭
A Joint Piece by Our Cambodian & Thai Correspondents on the Recent Border Tensions
Shots at the Border Echo History as Cambodia and Thailand Clash Again
by Chandara Samban, in Kandal & Natamon Aumphin, in Bangkok
After a 14-year hiatus, armed clashes have erupted once again along the Cambodia–Thailand border. The fighting broke out on the morning of July 24, 2025, near the Ta Moan Thom Temple in the Dangrek Mountains, straddling Cambodia’s Oddar Meanchey and Thailand’s Surin provinces. With negotiations stalling and no ceasefire reached, the conflict has since spread to other parts of the disputed border.
The flare-up follows a two-month standoff triggered by a fatal gunfight at Mom Tei on May 28, which resulted in the death of a Cambodian soldier. Tensions intensified in recent days after an explosion injured Thai soldiers, leading Bangkok to accuse Cambodia of placing new landmines in the disputed territory, a violation of the Ottawa Convention. The situation reached a diplomatic breaking point on July 23, when Thailand expelled Cambodia’s ambassador and recalled its own from Phnom Penh.
On the ground, the fighting has included the use of air strikes, artillery launchers, and what Cambodian officials allege to be cluster munitions—banned under the 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions due to their indiscriminate impact and long-lasting danger to civilians. Moreover, Reuters reported that the Thai military deployed F-16 fighter jets during the fighting, signalling a serious escalation in firepower. After four days of clashes, the death toll has risen to nearly 30, including civilians on both sides, with more than 200,000 residents evacuated from the border region.
The crisis has devolved into a political stalemate, with each country blaming the other for initiating hostilities and violating international law. On July 24, Cambodia’s Ministry of National Defense accused Thailand of provoking further violence by installing barbed wire and launching a coordinated military operation dubbed “Chakrabongse Bhuvanath,” with intense mobilization of troops in the provinces of Trat and Chanthaburi, both situated on the border between the two countries. Moreover, Cambodia’s spokesman Pen Bona accused Thailand of targeting civilian infrastructure such as pagodas, schools, and health centers, prompting Cambodia to file a complaint with the UN Security Council for violations of international humanitarian law.
On the other hand, Thailand insists it acted in self-defense after Cambodian troops fired artillery in civilian areas using a BM-21 system, an attack which led to the deaths of at least 12 civilians and damage to medical facilities. Moreover, Thai military sources, echoed in domestic media coverage, warn of potential further escalation if Cambodia deploys its PHL-03 long-range missile system. However, political confusion in Bangkok is complicating the situation: the interim Thai government led by Acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai has rebuffed international calls for de-escalation and declared martial law in Thai provinces bordering Cambodia.
The underlying roots of the conflict are as much historical as they are political. At the heart of the dispute lies long-standing tension over sovereignty and the interpretation of colonial-era maps, particularly concerning the areas surrounding the Preah Vihear and Ta Moan Thom temples. Cambodia, citing rulings by the International Court of Justice (ICJ), insists on third-party mediation. Thailand prefers bilateral mechanisms, though experts argue these have repeatedly failed. Deth Sok Udom, a professor at Paragon International University in Phnom Penh, questioned the efficacy of bilateral mechanisms, arguing that if they had worked, the dispute would not have persisted for over 25 years, and urged both sides to accept third-party mediation and submit remaining disagreements to the ICJ for adjudication.
From a political point of view, analysts point to a breakdown in the once-close relationship between Cambodia’s former Prime Minister Hun Sen and the Shinawatra political dynasty in Thailand. A leaked phone call in June between Hun Sen and then Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra sparked nationalist backlash in Thailand and contributed to her political downfall, fueling speculation that the tensions are being stoked for internal political advantage.
In this context, Thai public anger has been further inflamed by media coverage portraying Cambodia as the aggressor, triggering a wave of xenophobia and even racial violence against Cambodian migrant workers in Thailand. On the Cambodian side, the conflict has prompted widespread social media mobilization and overseas protests, particularly in Australia, South Korea, and New Zealand. Demonstrators have accused Thailand of aggression and called for an immediate halt to military action.
At Cambodia’s request, the UN Security Council held a closed-door session on July 25, urging both sides to return to diplomatic channels. During the session, Thailand’s Permanent Representative to the UN reiterated previous government statements, stating that the Cambodian side initiated the attacks first, targeting not only military but also civilian sites, among which were residential areas and hospitals, actions which constitute violations of international law, such as the Geneva Conventions.
The international community has also responded with growing concern. Despite mediation efforts by Malaysia—this year’s ASEAN chair—and other regional players, ceasefire talks have faltered. On July 24, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim held separate calls with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet and Thailand’s Acting Prime Minister, resulting in what was initially described as a “verbal ceasefire.” However, Cambodia later quickly accused Thailand of failing to honor the agreement, and the fighting resumed on July 27.
U.S. President Donald Trump entered the fray with direct calls to both governments, warning that tariff negotiations would be postponed until a ceasefire is reached, but no concrete breakthrough has been achieved. While the fighting remains contained to the border region, fears are growing that the crisis could disrupt regional stability and ASEAN cohesion, potentially opening the door for external powers to assert influence in the region.
In this context, maintaining ASEAN solidarity is crucial, which is why both Indonesia and Malaysia showed willingness to help Thailand and Cambodia get back to the negotiation table. These efforts are all the more urgent as experts warn that without credible mediation, further escalation is likely. Thong Mengdavid of the China-ASEAN Studies Center suggested deploying international observers or ASEAN monitors to verify violations and restore trust, while also urging both nations to establish mechanisms to protect civilians and infrastructure.
So far, neither side shows signs of pulling back. Both militaries remain on high alert, and public sentiment in both countries appears hardened. While a path to a ceasefire remains uncertain, international pressure is mounting. What is clear, observers agree, is that regional diplomacy and legal arbitration offer the only viable long-term solutions. Whether Bangkok and Phnom Penh possess the political will to choose diplomacy over nationalism, however, remains to be seen.
Myanmar 🇲🇲
Fear, Ransom, and Silence: Rise of Abductions in Myanmar
by May
Fear has become the daily norm in Myanmar, especially as the country’s most vulnerable groups are being forced into war through abduction schemes. These practices have left Myanmar in a chaotic, shattered state where children are enlisted as soldiers and citizens are pulled from the streets, disrupting the country’s social fabric.
Alarmingly, abductions in the Sagaing Region’s city of Monywa have become disturbingly frequent, with children as young as four being kidnapped either for ransom or to be trafficked. Meanwhile, given the junta’s battlefield losses, older youths are instead being abducted for nationwide conscription. Of the many young men abducted and pressed into service, some manage to avoid recruitment by paying ransoms, which makes wealthier individuals and families the primary target. As a consequence, Monywa locals have now started concealing whether their businesses are doing well to avoid being targeted.
A recent report from Human Rights Watch confirms the growing number of juvenile soldiers. Since the coup, the UN has verified over 1,800 cases of child recruitment, though the real number is likely much higher. Children are being used as porters, guides, and even human shields. As highlighted by a report published by the International Labour Organization (ILO) in March 2025, this results in “children who are near or of recruitment age living in fear, not only of being forced into military service but also of being used in violent actions against those opposing the military.” Moreover, the military’s recruitment, disproportionately targets marginalized groups such as the urban poor, displaced individuals, people without national registration, and members of ethnic and religious minorities.
Other than forced conscription, many abductions are enabled by human trafficking, which is becoming an escalating concern in Southeast Asia. Myanmar is now home to a multimillion-dollar scam and trafficking industry, where the victims, often lured by fake job offers, are trafficked into scam centers operating inside the country—destabilizing not only Myanmar itself, but the wider regional economy. In June 2025, ASEAN, with Australian support, launched new guidelines to combat transnational crimes and protect trafficking victims. While this presents a challenge to ASEAN’s non-interference policy, the regional implications of these criminal activities demand urgent attention and targeted responses.
These developments underscore that the crisis in Myanmar is no longer confined to the battlefield—it now plays out in the streets, in homes, and in the lives of ordinary people gripped by constant fear. When civilians disappear in broad daylight and children are dragged into war, the conflict ceases to be merely political. It becomes a matter of fundamental human rights, erased day by day, one abduction at a time.
May has previously worked in the editorial department at a media group in Myanmar. She also has experience in film and photography, and engages with people-centered stories through her travels and creative work.
Lao PDR 🇱🇦
Storm Wipha Sweeps Through Laos
by Chammie Lo, in Vientiane
Earlier this week, tropical storm Wipha ravaged through northern and central Laos, triggering flash floods, landslides, and damage to roads and infrastructure across five provinces: Luang Prabang, Xieng Khouang, Huaphanh, Xayabouly, and Vientiane. Villages were submerged and major transport links disrupted, including the Laos–China Railway, which suspended service due to safety concerns.
The flooding caused by the storm was further worsened by water released from several dams. Between July 22 and 27, the Nam Ou Hydropower Dams 4, 5, and 6 in Phongsaly province fully opened their floodgates to release excess water. A few days earlier, similar discharges had already begun at Nam Ou Dams 1 to 3 in Luang Prabang province to ease the pressure on the dams' structure. While intended to protect dam structures from overflow, these sudden releases overwhelmed downstream communities already struggling to cope with the storm, hitting them with more water at the worst possible time.
In Luang Prabang, a UNESCO-listed heritage city known for its historical charm, floodwaters from the Khan River rose to the base of the iconic Naga statue near Phousi Hill. In Vang Vieng, another tourist hotspot, famous for river tubing and limestone mountains, the overflowing Xong river also flooded streets and nearby houses.
These scenes are becoming increasingly familiar during Laos’ rainy seasons. As climate change intensifies, the region is experiencing stronger storms more frequently, and with warmer air bringing more moisture, the intensity of rainfall is also growing. This combination leads to frequent dam water releases, which impact not only local livelihoods but also economic recovery in tourism-reliant areas.
The recent floods revived concerns about the ongoing construction of the Luang Prabang Dam. The 1460-megawatt project, led by Thai company CK Power, is one of the most controversial dams on the Mekong River due to its location, as it sits not only just 25 kilometers upstream from the historic city, but also just 8.6 kilometers from an active earthquake fault. Already in 2020, the Mekong River Commission warned that the dam may pose an “extreme risk” to Luang Prabang’s World Heritage status and its surrounding communities, and this week’s events help understand why that could be the case.
Storm Wipha came to highlight the urgent need for the government to step up its disaster risk management. While progress has been made by strengthening early warning systems, utilizing emergency reserves, and joining regional disaster insurance schemes like SEADRIF, more remains to be done. True resilience cannot be limited to post-disaster response, but should instead start from infrastructure with built-in preventive measures.
Chammie is a development professional working on sustainable finance and inclusive livelihoods in Laos. She holds a degree in Politics and Law from the University of Hong Kong and has contributed research insights to academic and community spaces on heat governance, climate migration, and emission transparency.
Editorial Deadline 25/07/2025 11:59 PM (UTC +8)
